2025-12-24 07:31:04

A recent number has sparked quite a bit of discussion in the community. According to Galaxy's research data, when measured by the 2020 US dollar purchasing power, Bitcoin's actual value is currently about $99,848, not quite breaking the $100,000 mark.

It sounds a bit sobering, but the underlying logic is worth pondering. This isn't about denying how rapid Bitcoin's rise has been, but rather revealing a often-overlooked reality: inflation has quietly rewritten our understanding of price milestones. For this institution-led cycle, this difference is particularly interesting.

What's going on? The core issue lies in the US dollar's purchasing power. Over the past few years, the dollar has become increasingly less valuable. In other words, the current nominal price needs to be multiplied by 0.8 to be equivalent to its value in 2020. What does this mean? The $100,000 in 2025 actually corresponds to about $80,000 in 2020. Conversely, to reach the 2020 purchasing power of $100,000, Bitcoin's nominal price would need to approach $125,000—and the peak of this cycle is roughly hovering around that area. This is the true root of various controversies.

This is especially important for institutional investors. Pension funds and similar institutions don't care much about nominal gains; what they truly care about is how much they can earn after accounting for inflation. This also means that for Bitcoin to advance as a genuine macro asset, it must pass this hurdle.

There's another layer of complexity. In 2025, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics paused the release of CPI data due to funding issues, making the assessment of real value even more uncertain. Different statistical methods yield different results, and the already chaotic data has become even harder to interpret. The market's reactions also confirm this value discrepancy—Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback after its October peak.

BTC0.32%

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ApeDegen

· 18h ago

Oh no, inflation is really ruthless. It feels like all the earnings are being eaten up. Are you saying 125,000 is truly breaking the 10,000 mark? Then I need to recalculate my gains... This logic is a bit harsh; institutions have already calculated this thoroughly. CPI has stopped? Then what can we trust in the data? From a purchasing power perspective, it’s indeed interesting, but why do retail investors care so much? In the face of inflation, everyone is equal; BTC can’t escape either. So, does breaking 100,000 mean nothing? That’s a bit hurtful. Institutions are targeting purchasing power, and we’re still looking at nominal prices? Is this why the price is crashing from the peak?

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AirdropAutomaton

· 18h ago

Still playing the number game, even after inflation adjustment it hasn't broken 100,000. That logic is indeed brilliant. Institutions have long seen through this, nominal prices mean nothing to them. CPI has even stopped publishing, who still knows the real value? Anyway, I'm confused. Wait, is 125,000 the real 100,000? Then we still have to wait.

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SquidTeacher

· 18h ago

Well... to put it simply, inflation has eaten into our returns. This is a bit of a blow. Breaking 100,000 is just a psychological barrier; the actual earnings have shrunk. Institutions are the clearest about this; the nominal price set can't fool them at all. Wait, CPI has stopped publishing? How can we judge the real returns then? It feels like the crypto world is always self-deceiving; one number can be debated for so long haha. That's why institutions actually enter the market very calmly—they look at the real return, not that虚的涨幅. To be honest, $125,000 is the real threshold to break 10,000, but the market response is not synchronized... interesting. Inflation is actually the biggest whale, silently harvesting everyone's assets.

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StablecoinSkeptic

· 18h ago

It's the same old inflation story... How should I put it, the institutions are well aware of it. --- Is 125,000 really the true breaking point of 10,000? That's hilarious. We're still far from the moon. --- If this logic continues, gold's price will be meaningless too. --- The Federal Reserve stopping CPI releases? I need to take a closer look at this move. --- To put it simply, institutions don't care about nominal numbers. Why are retail investors still getting excited? --- An 0.8 coefficient sounds uncomfortable, equivalent to ongoing losses. --- Anyway, purchasing power is the key. Bitcoin needs to keep up.

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GhostAddressHunter

· 18h ago

Inflation is really something else. When I do the math, I realize that 100,000 isn't really 100,000... If this continues, why would institutions still be optimistic about BTC?

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