ETHEREUM’S $4,400 TARGET: ON-CHAIN SELLING COLLAPSES BY 95% AS BULLISH REVERSAL NEARS BREAKOUT

As the final week of 2025 unfolds, Ethereum (ETH) is quietly constructing a textbook reversal pattern that could catalyze a massive 40% surge into the new year. While its recent price action has appeared flat, a look beneath the hood reveals a “rare alignment” of technical and on-chain factors. With a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern nearing completion and a staggering 95% collapse in long-term holder selling, Ethereum is primed for a supply-shock-driven rally toward $4,400, provided it can overcome one final “supply wall” in the low $3,000s. I. The Inverse Head-And-Shoulders: Target $4,400 Ethereum’s daily chart has formed a clean inverse head-and-shoulders structure, a powerful technical signal often marking the end of a corrective phase: The Neckline: The key level to watch is the $3,400 zone. This “flattish” neckline is traditionally a magnet for follow-through momentum. A decisive close above this level would mathematically project a measured move toward $4,400.Path to the Breakout: Before attacking the $3,400 neckline, bulls must first clear the “clearance zone” between $3,150 and $3,173. This area represents a massive cost-basis cluster where nearly 2.94 million ETH were last acquired, serving as the strongest immediate resistance wall. II. On-Chain Supply Exhaustion: 95% Reduction in Selling The most compelling support for the technical breakout comes from the exhaustion of on-chain selling pressure: HODLer Net Position Change: This metric has shifted dramatically in less than a month. On November 26, long-term holders were distributing approximately 1.1 million ETH per day. By December 23, that figure plummeted to just 54,427 ETH.Turning Point Signal: This 95% reduction in selling suggests that “strong hands” are no longer willing to feed supply into the current price range. Historically, such a collapse in distribution near a major technical bottom creates the perfect conditions for a violent upward move once new demand enters. III. Conclusion and Critical Year-End Levels The short-term outlook for Ethereum is one of high-conviction recovery, bolstered by a significant supply-side vacuum. However, the bullish thesis remains contingent on maintaining its structural integrity: Bullish Scenarios: Clearing the $3,173 supply wall would open a path to the $3,400 neckline. A break above this level targets the $4,400 goal, with intermediate resistance only appearing at $4,170.Risk Factors: The bullish setup is threatened if Ethereum fails to hold its support levels. A drop below $2,800 would weaken the structure, while losing $2,620 would fully invalidate the reversal pattern, signaling that sellers have regained control.Final Take: Ethereum is currently a “supply-exhausted” asset waiting for a technical spark. If the $3,150–$3,173 resistance is cleared with conviction, the path to $4,400 becomes the path of least resistance. ⚠️ Important Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.