Latest poll data is heartbreaking — 72% of Americans are dissatisfied with the economic situation, Trump's overall approval rating has dropped to 44%, and approval of economic policies has hit a new low of 31%. The midterm election pressure is intense, and the situation in 2026 is indeed uncertain.

Interestingly, reality and data have created a strange disconnect. The core inflation rate in November fell to 2.6% (a four-year low), energy prices dropped to a five-year low, and the US stock market is still soaring to record highs. But why are the public not convinced? 44% say their financial situation has worsened, and 90% are anxious about high prices, making inflation the top livelihood issue. This is what some call a "perceived recession."

Trump's governing advantage has basically collapsed. Besides some support for border security, key areas like healthcare, tariffs, and immigration all have approval ratings below 50%. To save his re-election prospects, the White House might be forced to adopt radical measures — the previously expected 100 basis point rate cut could come earlier, aiming to boost market confidence with liquidity.

This is a double-edged sword for the crypto market. The policy swings in early December triggered a $19 billion leverage liquidation wave. Currently, BTC is still fluctuating around $87,000, and ETH is held above $2,900. If Trump pushes for easing policies solely for votes, crypto could see a short-term boost; but if the political situation reverses and policies shift, the market could face another round of shocks. The upcoming policy direction will determine whether the crypto market breaks out or continues to consolidate.