2025-12-25 13:00:36

#比特币与黄金战争 $BTC $ETH $BANANA

Bitcoin Q4 "Cold Winter": Can It Still Recover by Year-End Despite 22.8% Drop?

This quarter has been really unfriendly to bulls. $BTC has been declining steadily since the beginning of the year, with a sharp 22.8% plunge in Q4, breaking below the $85,000 mark. During the same period, gold surged by 69%, making Bitcoin look somewhat powerless—in the face of a 5% loss for the year, investors can't help but wonder: can it turn around before the end of the year?

Hope seems to be within reach. On December 26, a large number of options are about to expire, which is often a market turning point signal. QCP data shows some interesting signs: bearish positions are easing, and there are 100,000 call options building up, indicating market sentiment is starting to heat up. Analyst David pointed out that currently, $300 million of gamma risk is locked between $85,000 and $90,000—once this threshold is broken, it could be the moment for the market to ignite.

Looking at the liquidation heatmap, the area between $90,000 and $95,000 is filled with stop-loss orders from bears, while $84,000 is the last line of defense for bulls. When these collide, volatility could be intense.

But let's not forget to keep a cool head. CryptoQuant's report is a bit sobering—it shows that Bitcoin's demand side is indeed shrinking, and medium-term pressure is significant. Looking back at history, during bear markets, Bitcoin even touched $56,000, which serves as a risk bottom line the market is trying to warn you about.

In summary, will there be a rebound after the holiday or a second bottom? Both are possible. Behind the seemingly "holiday bonus" market trend, there are actually many hidden risks. It's still a time to be cautious.

BTC0.18%

ETH0.08%

BANANA-1.12%

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New_Ser_Ngmi

· 7h ago

Gold has risen 69%, and we're still holding here, really incredible haha It's options expiration again, gamma risk, stop-loss orders, it's giving me a headache. Can 8.5 million break through? Honestly, it's a bit uncertain. The real problem is the shrinking demand side; no matter how many tricks you pull, it can't be saved. I just want to know whether there will be a rebound at the end of December or if it will continue to drop. Should I gamble or just stay calm and do nothing? This cold winter has been quite harsh; gold has already taken off, but Bitcoin is still sleeping.

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DataBartender

· 7h ago

Gold increased by 69% while Bitcoin dropped by 5%. This comparison is indeed remarkable... But I still bet that the options settlement on December 26 will activate the market. The 85,000 to 90,000 range is really crucial.

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OptionWhisperer

· 7h ago

Is it that options narrative again? Can it deceive until the end of the year? --- A 69% rise in gold is quite ironic; we're still waiting for the 90,000 level. --- The statement about demand contraction is the real truth; everything else is data beautification. --- Is 84,000 really the last line of defense for the bulls? It looks more like a tofu-like structure to me. --- Every time they say "about to turn," but what has actually turned? --- Instead of watching options expiration, it's better to see where the main players are dumping. --- 56,000 is not risk; it's a real expectation. --- Post-holiday rebound? I bet on a second bottom test, 10 yuan each. --- Gamma risk locks in at 85,000-90,000; basically, it's a zone of repeatedly cutting leeks.

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FloorPriceNightmare

· 7h ago

Gold has increased by 69%, Bitcoin has fallen by 5%, this gap is really impressive, still hoping for a turnaround by the end of the year, it's tough Can options expiration and settlement save the market? I think we have to wait for big funds to truly enter before there's hope Breaking 85,000 is unlikely, 56,000 might really not be a dream, gotta be cautious The so-called "Gamma Risk" is just a cover, the key still depends on liquidity 100,000 call orders sound like a lot, but retail investors can't withstand the dumping by institutions at this volume Gold is almost doubled, and we're still discussing whether we can break even. Honestly, it's a bit uncomfortable

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NewPumpamentals

· 7h ago

Gold up 69%, Bitcoin down 22.8%, this gap is really outrageous Want to turn things around before the end of the year? It depends on whether the options expiration on the 26th can save the day If the critical level of 85,000 can't be held, then 90,000 will be even more difficult... Feeling timid If demand shrinks, 56,000 is no joke, be prepared Holiday red envelopes? Uh, I think it might just be a festive rally, haha

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GasFeeSurvivor

· 7h ago

Both falling and rising, gold is really grinding BTC into the ground. Can't break 85,000, feels like a cliffhanger at the end of the year. Should I go all in on options expiration day? I'm torn. The idea of demand shrinking sounds a bit scary. Will 56,000 really come? Holiday market trends sound like a trap. I think I'll stay on the sidelines.

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