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Recently, the performance of the RMB exchange rate has been quite interesting. The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke the 7.0 integer mark, reaching a new high since October last year. From the beginning of the year until now, the offshore RMB has appreciated by 4.6%, and these figures actually reflect international investors' true views on China's economic fundamentals.
Why has this change occurred? It is mainly due to the convergence of several factors. On one side is the support from the domestic economy—export data exceeding expectations, increased year-end foreign exchange settlement demand from enterprises—all of which provide a foundation for RMB appreciation. On the other side, the Federal Reserve's rate cut policy has caused the US dollar index to continue weakening, even breaking below the 100 mark. When the dollar weakens, other non-US currencies naturally become relatively stronger.
From a market psychology perspective, this wave of RMB strength has also boosted market sentiment in the forex market. More and more international investors are beginning to reassess RMB assets, and this signal is quite clear. On December 25th, both offshore and onshore RMB were approaching the 7.0 target.
To be honest, the change in the exchange rate may seem like a technical number, but in reality, it reflects major shifts in the economic landscape. The RMB's strength is not just about ups and downs; it more so indicates a reevaluation of a country's economic resilience in the context of international economic competition.