The performance of silver in 2025 is honestly a bit beyond expectations. The annual increase is nearly 150%, firmly ranking at the top of the asset gain list. After breaking through a key level in August, it has risen for eight consecutive weeks, with the weekly RSI reaching its highest level since 2011. More striking is that it has remained in the overbought zone but has refused to undergo a deep correction—breaking the old notion that "overbought must adjust."

Why is this happening? The underlying logic is quite clear: this is not purely driven by emotional speculation, but a result of the simultaneous influence of supply-demand dynamics, industrial demand, and the monetary environment. Overbought conditions here are not a sign of an ending but rather a reflection of ongoing revaluation.

The supply side faces the toughest challenges. Globally, 72%-80% of silver is produced as a byproduct of other mining operations—copper, lead, zinc—these primary metals have fixed extraction plans, and silver output follows suit. Since 2016, global mined silver production has not truly rebounded; this year, it is expected to grow only 1.9% to 835 million ounces. Even more problematic is the declining ore grade—from 250 grams per ton in 2010 to now 180 grams per ton—causing extraction costs to rise year after year.

Recycled silver? It sounds promising, but the reality is that the recycling rate is only about 20%, with only a 1.2% increase this year, which is far from enough to fill the gap. New mine development cycles also take 5 to 10 years, and there is little new supply to rescue the market in the short term. This is the true foundation of silver's strong momentum.