The wave of gold market in 2025 indeed did not appear out of nowhere. Central banks continuously buying, increasing global political and economic uncertainties, declining real interest rates, plus the persistent inflow of ETF funds—these factors combined to drive this epic surge. As we enter 2026, there are no signs that these supporting factors are fading.

Let's look at some key points specifically:

First is the central bank side. The big trend of de-dollarization remains unchanged, and central banks' gold purchasing pace will not stop. This is the most direct and powerful support for gold. Secondly, although geopolitical conflicts seem intense, market pricing reactions are extremely quick. Sometimes, when tensions ease, it doesn't necessarily mean gold prices will plummet; instead, it may create good buying opportunities for long-term investors.

Next, consider the global interest rate environment. The central tendency of real interest rates is moving downward, which means gold's appeal as an allocation tool is increasing. Meanwhile, ETF capital inflows are healthy and not overly crowded, indicating that this rally is driven by genuine demand, not just speculation.

However, now the market sentiment is particularly bullish. Most short positions have turned long, which often signals an upcoming short-term correction. Once speculative funds start taking profits, gold prices could see a quick downward adjustment. But frankly, such a pullback could be an opportunity for large funds; central banks and major buyers can accumulate at lower levels.

The overall outlook for 2026 is: oscillating upward, but not smoothly all the way. Pay special attention to potential profit-taking in the first half of the year. If, during declines, buying volume resolutely supports the market (here, it depends on whether ETF positions will increase in reverse), it indicates that the long-term logic remains unchanged. Each significant correction could actually be a new entry point.

In summary, gold in 2026 remains in a "rise easily, fall difficult" pattern. In the short term, be cautious of technical adjustments caused by overheated sentiment, but over a longer period, under the influence of these factors, each deep correction could ultimately become the starting point for a new wave of gains.