2025-12-25 17:25:03

Each liquidity cycle follows a pattern: gold leads, followed by Bitcoin.

This is no coincidence. Gold just hit a new all-time high, but Bitcoin is still trading sideways—there's actually a hidden pattern behind this mismatch.

Let's look at what history says. During the cycle from 2016 to 2017, gold moved first, while Bitcoin appeared sluggish. It wasn't until gold's rally weakened that Bitcoin suddenly exploded, ultimately soaring tenfold. The same happened from 2020 to 2021—quantitative easing was launched, gold prices hit new highs, but Bitcoin remained below its historical high, until gold peaked, and Bitcoin finally started to move.

Now, looking at the 2025 scenario. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in a row, the Treasury is buying about $40 billion in government bonds each month, and global money supply has hit a record high. Gold remains strong, but Bitcoin is still lagging—this is the familiar signal.

Bitcoin never leads; it follows. When gold begins to retreat, institutional investors will continue to accumulate while retail investors grow tired. History repeatedly proves this.

If Bitcoin's market cap eventually reaches only 30% of gold's market cap, the price of each BTC could reach $450,000. This is my long-term outlook for this cycle.

BTC-0.13%

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OldLeekConfession

· 35m ago

Gold leads Bitcoin, this logic has been heard too many times, but does it really happen every time? Wait, has gold topped out? Not yet... then I won't believe the 450,000 figure for now.

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SlowLearnerWang

· 4h ago

Here we go again, gold leading the way with Bitcoin taking over... It sounds so real, but I'm already tired of this kind of armchair strategist talk. Haha. If you ask me, these are all "rules" discovered later on. Who the hell would have thought of them back then? 450,000? Sounds good, but I don't know when we'll have to wait until the Year of the Monkey or the Horse for this to happen.

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ForkTongue

· 4h ago

Gold leading the charge—I've heard this logic many times before, but every time someone gets trapped... Wait, 450,000? Your prediction must be to scare all retail investors away, haha. Why does it feel like this round's Bitcoin rhythm is a bit different from gold? Can it really replicate history? Institutional arrangements are just institutional arrangements; how long the crypto market fire can burn is the key. History will repeat itself, but prices won't; reality is often more heartbreaking than stories.

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TerraNeverForget

· 4h ago

Gold paves the way for BTC to move again, same old tricks... Just wait and see, this time the $450,000 estimate will probably have to wait another two years.

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GweiWatcher

· 4h ago

Gold paves the way, but Bitcoin is the real main event... I buy into this logic; history is the best proof.

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StableGeniusDegen

· 5h ago

Gold leads the dance, and BTC just follows... I've seen this logic several times, but a target of 450,000 USD is still a bit bold. We'll have to see how long the Federal Reserve can keep printing.

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ZkProofPudding

· 5h ago

The gold decline is the right time to get in. This logic indeed holds up to scrutiny... 450,000 sounds reasonable.

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