A fun phenomenon in the crypto world during the Christmas holiday—retail investors and institutions seem to be performing a standoff.

On one side, retail investors are continuously buying around 88,000, while larger players are quietly reducing their positions. Specifically, recent 7-day on-chain data clearly illustrates this: retail addresses (holding 1-10 BTC) have net bought 32,000 BTC, while whale addresses (over 1000+ BTC) have net sold 23,000 BTC. This imbalance in buying and selling has historically never ended well each time it occurs.

The futures market is even more straightforward. The Bitcoin long-short ratio has dropped from 1.2:1 to 0.8:1, with shorts continuing to increase, indicating that institutional investors are intensifying their short positions.

From a technical perspective, the pressure is more evident. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are widening downward, with the middle band at 89,500 and the upper band pressing at 92,000, forming a double resistance. Recent rebounds, although temporarily breaking through the middle band, quickly fell back, leaving long upper shadows—typical signals of a "bull trap."

On the 4-hour chart, the price is pressured near the middle band and has fallen back; the MACD has already formed a death cross, and the three lines of the KDJ are diverging downward. The hourly chart has even broken below the lower band, indicating a lack of strength in the rebound, which is hard to change.

Ethereum's technical outlook also faces pressure. Considering the overall market rhythm, it is still necessary to maintain caution regarding risks.