Open the market watch, and Bitcoin is once again testing levels. This familiar oscillating rhythm reminds me of Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent statement — "Inflation is moving sideways." Isn't the market the same, unable to find a clear direction amid policy uncertainty?

As a market observer who has witnessed multiple bull and bear cycles, I pay close attention to every move by the Federal Reserve. The most recent policy decision was particularly impressive: the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. It sounds like a routine operation, but the details hide unusual signals.

Among the 12 voting members, 3 voted against — the highest opposition since 2019. What does this number signify? It reflects internal disagreements over policy direction and serves as an early warning light that market participants need to heed.

Looking back, the aggressive easing during the pandemic period has yet to fully subside. The 2020 "money-printing" wave not only pushed interest rates to zero but also launched large-scale asset purchases. The Fed's balance sheet once expanded to nearly $9 trillion, accounting for over 30% of US GDP. The aftereffects of this are only now beginning to surface.

Powell frankly admitted an awkward fact: the pace of inflation improvement is "disappointing," far below expectations. The current forecast for personal consumption expenditure inflation is as high as 2.4%, with core inflation even at 2.8% — both well above the long-term target of 2%. Why didn't they step on the brakes earlier? The answer to this question will determine the key to the market's next move.