#美联储降息政策 Non-farm data this round is indeed quite intriguing. I’ve looked at Citi’s forecasting logic: a decrease of 45,000 in October, followed by a rebound of 80,000 in November—this zigzag growth, under the cover of seasonal adjustments, can easily dull judgment. The key point is the unemployment rate; they expect it to rise from 4.4% to 4.52%. This subtle fluctuation might be seriously underestimated in its impact on policy expectations.

The current issue is that within the Federal Reserve, there are already serious disagreements—some want to continue cutting interest rates to address weak employment, while others insist on maintaining high rates to combat inflation. Once next Tuesday’s employment report releases signals that are sufficiently ambiguous, market reactions could be very extreme—this puts considerable pressure on adjusting follow-up strategies.

My approach is as follows: first, observe recent position changes of those with hawkish styles. If they start reducing positions or raising stop-loss levels before non-farm data, it indicates cautiousness with a forward-looking perspective on the data. Also, pay attention to accounts that excel in high-volatility trading; these experts often can sniff out opportunities amid conflicting signals. Next week, I will moderately reallocate follow-up funds between these two types of styles to control the risk exposure of a single strategy. Practice has shown me that uncertainty itself can sometimes be more profitable than a confirmed trend—provided that the people you follow truly have that capability.