#现实世界资产代币化 Policy storms are coming, is Bitcoin going to crash again? Not necessarily.

After reviewing this risk warning from the seven associations, I mapped out the regulatory milestones of the past 12 years and found a pattern: every time a heavy policy hammer drops, there is indeed a short-term drop of 20-30%, but the long-term trend has never truly changed. In 2013, after banning bank services, Bitcoin stayed at the bottom for two years before entering the frenzy of 2017. In 2017, exchanges were shut down, the market went offshore, and global ETFs took over. In 2021, mining machines were phased out, hash power moved overseas, and capital was reallocated.

The current situation is different — Wall Street leads pricing, Middle Eastern sovereign funds are hoarding, and European institutions are custodians. No matter how strict domestic measures are, they cannot change the foundation of the global consensus being built. This time, the focus is on cracking down on stablecoins and RWA, which indicates what? Regulators are targeting financing scams and gray channels precisely, not aiming to wipe out the entire industry.

For retail traders, the key is to watch CEX movements — whether exchanges will restrict domestic IPs, KYC registration, or C2C functions. If there are no strict restrictions, it means continuing in a low-profile way, and the airdrop opportunities may actually increase because project teams will be more cautious in acquiring genuine users. When all negative news has been digested, it often signals a bottom — this is how history has always played out.