Dogecoin has been playing out the old story of long and short battles in the past 24 hours, with market sentiment wavering. But to tell the full story, we need to look at what’s really happening behind these signals.

**Current Market Situation Is Quite Painful**

In 2025, the entire meme coin ecosystem faced a heavy setback, with DOGE dropping approximately 62% from the beginning of the year. On the technical side, things are a bit contradictory—MACD recently showed a bullish crossover, suggesting a potential reversal, but the price is still below the 99-period EMA, and the Bollinger Bands are pressed very low, indicating that the long-term trend remains downward with limited short-term rebound space.

**Highlights Worth Noting**

Grayscale’s launch of the DOGE Trust ETF (GDOG) has gone live, indicating that institutions are starting to take this sector seriously. Even more interesting is the House of Doge plan, which aims to develop DOGE into a daily payment tool through B2B and B2C payment solutions, with an initial launch target set for Q1 2026. These initiatives suggest that DOGE is more than just a meme—real-world applications are being actively promoted.

**Risks Cannot Be Ignored**

On-chain data has recently flashed red—large holders are selling DOGE on a large scale. Meanwhile, long positions are heavily accumulated, and once a chain reaction of liquidations triggers, the decline could be sharp. The long-term technical outlook remains weak, and clear support signals at the bottom have yet to appear.

Overall, institutional participation and application deployment are the hopes, but short-term market pressures and whale actions are creating uncertainties. Those entering the market now should be mentally prepared.