2025-12-28 11:24:14

Recently, the volatility in the crypto market has intensified, and the tug-of-war between Bitcoin and gold for capital has become particularly complex. We need to understand what is really happening in the current market from multiple dimensions.

**Positive factors are accumulating**

On the macro level, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to possibly cut interest rates in 2026, which provides some support for risk assets like Bitcoin. Technically, Bitcoin has retraced about 30% from its recent high, and the overbought conditions have been sufficiently adjusted, laying a foundation for a subsequent rebound.

The derivatives market has shown clear updates—excess leverage in the futures market has been significantly cleared, greatly reducing the risk of chain reactions of forced liquidations. Meanwhile, implied volatility in options has gradually fallen from high levels, and market sentiment is returning from panic to normalcy. Historically, some assets that declined in December tend to rebound in January due to reallocation of funds, and this seasonal factor is also worth noting.

**There are also warning signs**

But reality also reminds us. Exchange inflows are declining, on-chain activity has noticeably decreased, and market buying interest remains cautious. If the net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continue, it will exert considerable selling pressure.

Even more concerning is the performance of gold and silver—they recently hit new all-time highs, and their strong safe-haven appeal is diverting funds away from the crypto market. Bitcoin repeatedly faces selling during rebounds, indicating that confidence in traditional assets is stronger.

Technical resistance is also present. The largest batch of Bitcoin options by size expired on December 26, and such major events often intensify short-term market volatility, increasing the difficulty of predictions.

The current market complexity lies in the simultaneous presence of bullish and bearish factors, with institutions and analysts showing clear divergence in their outlooks. At this point, what is needed is not blind optimism or pessimism, but a calm observation of specific data and trends.

BTC0.02%

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CountdownToBroke

· 7h ago

The matter of golden flow funds is really annoying. I originally thought BTC could rise, but it was hijacked by traditional assets... Wait, is the 2026 interest rate cut too far away? --- The volatility on options expiration day will definitely be explosive. No one can predict such things in advance, anyway, it's just gambling. --- The decline in exchange inflows is really a warning sign. It shows that institutions don't really have such confidence. --- Seasonal rebound? I think it's uncertain. Now even retail investors are scared. --- Wait, how did the record high in gold become a positive... Clearly, it's competing with BTC for money. --- Calm observation and so on, sounds easy. When it comes to losing money, who can stay calm? --- The decrease in the risk of chain liquidations is a good sign, at least the retail investors won't die so quickly.

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WalletWhisperer

· 7h ago

Gold hits a new high again, and that's good news. Funds are all rushing into safe-haven assets, and BT still depends on people's sentiment. The market is so polarized; frankly, no one dares to be sure about the next move. Wait, will that batch of large options expiring really cause a sell-off? Or is it just a false alarm? Honestly, are the current buyers just the bagholders? The decline in exchange inflow is the most heartbreaking, indicating that institutions are also watching from the sidelines. The interest rate cut expectations have been around for over a year. How much longer do we have to wait?

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rug_connoisseur

· 7h ago

Gold is bleeding again. Is it really going to stand toe-to-toe with BTC this time? Or is this just the final flicker of traditional finance...

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rugpull_ptsd

· 8h ago

Gold hitting new highs really can't be contained anymore; funds are clearly flowing into traditional assets. It's the same old story—waiting for interest rate cuts in 2026? Start selling now. December options expiration + exchange outflows, this combo pack hurts a bit. Bull and bear fighting, who the hell knows what’s next, I’d better wait and see. Rebounds get smashed again, this signal doesn’t seem quite right.

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