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This year's performance differences between gold and Bitcoin are indeed worth pondering.
The numbers are clear: gold is expected to increase by nearly 70% by 2025, and the price has already surpassed a historical high near $4,500 per ounce. The main drivers are rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of rate cuts, with institutional investors and central banks actively positioning themselves. In contrast, Bitcoin has retreated about 6% from its early-year high and is now oscillating between $87,000 and $90,000, showing more risk asset characteristics and closely linked to the stock market. When liquidity is under pressure, it is easily sold off.
This outcome is somewhat surprising. There has been a saying in the market that Bitcoin is "digital gold," based on the logic that it should offer better protection in uncertain environments. But this year's gold performance clearly tells us: when real risk events occur, investors still trust tangible assets that have been validated over thousands of years.
The theoretical advantages of Bitcoin are quite obvious—its features like infinite divisibility, fast transfer and settlement, and fixed supply are all things gold cannot do. The problem is that it is highly sensitive to macro liquidity conditions. When market risk appetite declines and funding tightens, Bitcoin’s high-beta nature becomes apparent, similar to the pattern seen with growth stocks.
However, from another perspective, Bitcoin’s long-term story is still ongoing. Institutional adoption continues to accelerate, and related ETF products are still seeing inflows, indicating that from a strategic allocation standpoint, large funds still recognize this asset. But in the short term, this round of market performance has indeed favored gold.
The current question is: who will be the last to laugh in this "war"? The answer may depend on how the macro environment evolves. If liquidity remains tight, gold’s advantage might persist; but once risk appetite rebounds, Bitcoin’s rebound potential could be even stronger than gold.