#机构投资者动向 Seeing this report, I have to say—friends who have been chasing highs all these years, it's time to wake up.

From 2013 to 2021, every major top was in Q4. In the past, everyone said it was the halving cycle, but research institutions are directly telling you the truth: that’s not the case. Political cycles and liquidity are the real drivers. I’ve long sensed that this logic was flawed, but I didn’t expect the market to educate me so quickly.

The most painful part is that institutions have already become the market’s brain, but they are much more cautious than retail investors. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, yet Bitcoin didn’t rise. Why? Because institutions are waiting—for liquidity to truly loosen and for policy signals to be confirmed. They won’t be blinded by FOMO like us. Meanwhile, retail investors are still shouting about the bottom, but no funds are actually entering the market, so the trend naturally weakens.

What does this mean? Sideways consolidation will be the norm moving forward. No one will give you that rapid parabolic move unless the liquidity environment improves drastically. Those rushing in now to chase highs are likely to be the ones getting caught. I’ve seen too many people go all-in on hype of “policy benefits,” only to get slapped in the face in the end.

What you should do is hold your bottom line, wait for signals that liquidity is truly loosening, and don’t be blinded by short-term fluctuations. Longevity is the real key to being a winner.