In January 1980, silver prices surged dramatically, with the Hunt brothers pushing the price to $49.45 per ounce, a historic high point that is hard to ignore. But what if we consider inflation? From 1980 to now, the US CPI-adjusted inflation factor is roughly between 4.3 and 4.6 times, meaning that the previous all-time high, in today's purchasing power, would be equivalent to around $215 to $230.

However, looking at inflation alone isn't enough; we also need to consider the gold-silver ratio. In the modern fiat currency system, this ratio typically centers around 60 to 70, but during extreme bull markets, it can drop back to 30 to 40. Why is that? Because the reserves of gold and silver in the Earth's crust are naturally in a ratio of about 17:1 to 19:1, and historically, official ratios have been locked at 15:1 or 16:1 for a long time (established during Newton's era).

In the current fiat currency era, the normal fluctuation range is between 50 and 80. But during the liquidity crisis in 2020, this ratio suddenly soared above 120, indicating that silver was severely undervalued; conversely, during the 2011 silver bull market, the ratio compressed to around 32.

Currently, gold is at $4,500. If we take an extreme financial bull market scenario with a gold-silver ratio of 30, silver would be around $150. This price still falls short of the historical high adjusted for inflation. To reach the panic levels of the Hunt brothers in the 1980s, the gold-silver ratio would need to be pushed down to 15, with silver prices soaring to $300—that would essentially be at the level of shadow currency.

That said, precious metals are typically traded in large blocks, and bull and bear cycles usually take 5 to 10 years to complete a full round. The current gold cycle has already lasted two years, while silver has only been in this cycle for half a year. Additionally, the international monetary system may be undergoing a transition, with gold likely to serve as a long-term substitute role. Such changes should be viewed over a decade.