In recent days, market liquidity has noticeably contracted, and the turnover rate has also declined. BTC has struggled to hold above the $90,000 mark, with multiple attempts to push higher being suppressed, indicating that buyer sentiment remains cautious.

Next week, there aren't many major focuses, but the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday could add some rhythm to the market.

According to the latest data forecast from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2026—scheduled for March and July respectively. After the rate cuts, the benchmark interest rate is expected to settle around 3% and remain stable.

The interesting part about this 3% is that a report from the Royal Bank of Canada’s asset management team explicitly states that it corresponds to the current neutral interest rate in the United States. In other words, by the end of 2026, the Fed’s more than two-year-long tightening cycle will truly come to an end.

However, the number of rate cuts is not the deeper issue. The real question to consider is—what tools does the Federal Reserve still have in its toolbox?

On one hand, a 3% interest rate is definitely not the bottom line. If economic conditions require stimulation, the Fed can easily continue to lower rates. This leaves unlimited room for market imagination.

On the other hand, the Fed has already launched a new quantitative easing tool called the "Reserve Management Program," which is akin to targeted liquidity injections into the financial system. The latest monthly scale has reached $40 billion, providing tangible financial support.

So, the current situation is: the Fed has ample reserves and a very calm attitude. This environment is quite favorable for the U.S. stock market ecosystem.

Conversely, if the Fed becomes anxious and starts to operate more frequently and frantically, it would indicate real problems. On the contrary, this measured and orderly approach can send a stronger signal. A Fed that is willing to patiently wait and not rush to give up can maintain market expectations of easing, which is a true stabilizer for asset prices.

By the way, news about rising U.S. unemployment rates has been popping up from time to time recently. Some ask whether this will change the Fed’s rate cut plans. Chairman Powell has previously hinted multiple times that the current policy tilt favors "protecting employment." Therefore, if employment data worsens, it could actually push the Fed to implement more decisive easing policies.