January – the start of new pain for crypto?

We’ve already mentioned that January 15 could be a key date for BTC: on that day MSCI will decide on the status of DTA-companies (like MSTR).

But there’s another important event tied to that date which could negatively affect ETH – BitMine shareholders voting to approve bonus packages for Tom Lee.

Right now Tom Lee has a very direct financial incentive to keep aggressively buying ETH until January 15, because if the package is approved, on top of a $15M upfront payment he’ll get additional bonuses for hitting ETH accumulation targets:

⚪️ 4% of ETH supply – 500,000 PSU (~$15M)
⚪️ 5% of ETH supply – 1,000,000 PSU (~$30M)

At the moment, the company already holds more than 4% of the total ETH supply, and its main target is 5%, which Tom Lee has publicly mentioned multiple times.

It’s logical to assume that once they hit 5%, the pace of purchases will start to slow down. And right now BitMine is basically the only company consistently buying ETH in large size – and even that isn’t enough to keep the price from falling.

So we end up with a scenario where buying pressure decreases, while selling pressure doesn’t go anywhere, which could lead to an even deeper dump in ETH.

On top of that, on January 1 the U.S. could once again face a government shutdown, since funding was only temporarily extended until the end of 2025. So Q1 may still bring plenty of pain – the main thing is to be prepared for it.