#比特币与黄金战争 Looking at the past fluctuations of Bitcoin and Ethereum, you can understand how the precious metals market will evolve next. To put it simply, this requires a first principles approach.

Excessive money supply → a surge in total social wealth → but uneven distribution → idle funds of the wealthy and gambling capital of ordinary people are all seeking an outlet. The stock market is a reservoir, but the problem is that stock prices are linked to company performance, while the rate of money supply exceeds profit growth. So, capital can only flow elsewhere, and that's how cryptocurrencies caught the wind. But now, the trend has shifted.

I’ve long said that digital gold like Bitcoin is not as good as real gold. Now, governments and major market players around the world are starting to think the same way. Capital is pouring into this old reservoir of gold, while Bitcoin is gradually being sidelined. This is a very critical turning point.

But the game plan of capital hasn’t changed — this round, the precious metals market is a replica of the previous coin cycle. Gold is like Bitcoin, silver is like Ethereum. First, the leading asset skyrockets, speculators see the leader’s rapid rise and start chasing the second place. The market cap is small, and silver’s gains are even more explosive than gold. Third and fourth-tier precious metals can even multiply ten or dozens of times. But there’s an old saying in finance — buy the leader.

The price movements of gold and silver will eventually mirror the rhythm of Bitcoin and Ethereum: the leader steadily rises, the second starts to follow, surges, and experiences extreme volatility, but in the end, the leader remains more stable in returns. Silver has an additional pitfall — strong production cycles, inventory that fluctuates between tight and loose, small market cap, high speculation, and no central bank backing. The risk factor is terrifyingly high.

This year, gold has performed well, but silver and other precious metals have surged even more fiercely. However, I don’t dare to go all-in on silver — I lack the precision to hit the right timing, so I only stick to long-term steady growth in gold.

At this position, entering the market doesn’t even require a long-term commitment; very soon, it will be clear that gold will definitely outperform silver.