#美联储回购协议计划 $BTC $ETH $SOL

The Federal Reserve's policy outlook has shown a clear shift. The probability of holding steady in January is already locked at 82.3%, leaving little suspense. But what really draws attention is the direction in March—the chance of a rate cut has broken through the 50% mark for the first time, reaching 53.3%, while the probability of no cut is 46.7%. The numbers on both sides are very close, what does this mean? Market expectations are rapidly reversing.

The issue is, this situation is far from settled. Every economic data release in the next two months could rewrite these probabilities. US CPI data, PCE price index, non-farm payroll report—any of these figures could cause market sentiment to flip instantly.

For crypto traders, these indicators are the triggers. Whether the Federal Reserve will act in March is entering a countdown. All key economic indicators are worth close attention because they directly determine the market rhythm over the next two months.