Late at night, I received another message: "Is this round of the market trend over?" I didn't think much and replied, "If it really is over, you won't even have the chance to ask this question."

Investors who have gone through two complete bull and bear cycles understand this principle— a healthy bull market is never a straight arrow upward, but rather follows a rhythm like "advance two steps, retreat one." A 10% plunge in a single day or a 20% shrinkage in a week? This is quite common in the market.

The key is not whether the price is currently rising or falling, but whether the underlying logic that determines the long-term trend still holds up. As long as these fundamentals haven't collapsed, the road is far from over.

**When will the liquidity faucet be turned on**

Right now, the market does feel a bit "inwardly competitive"—money is circulating within the system without large-scale new inflows. But think about it the other way around; this is precisely the process of building momentum for the next round of the market.

Once the Federal Reserve truly opens the door to interest rate cuts, borrowing costs will decrease accordingly. USD liquidity will flow faster throughout the entire financial system. The market's performance is largely determined by the yield of "safe assets"—things like government bonds and short-term bonds, how much they can earn.

When the returns on these low-risk instruments decline, capital seeking profits will naturally turn its attention to riskier, higher-potential assets. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, as typical representatives of "high risk, high reward," will benefit first. If the market reacts tepidly after the short-term rate cut is announced, it’s mostly a phase of digesting psychological expectations. The true liquidity effect takes time to fully materialize.

**Policy stance is quietly shifting**

Recently, the US regulatory attitude has undergone a substantial change. Relevant authorities are becoming more open and rational about the crypto industry. This is no small matter—improving policy friendliness will directly reduce the market's uncertainty premium.