Just looking at the recent on-chain data of CEXs can give you some insights. The reserves of Bitcoin and Ethereum have been decreasing since the beginning of this year, with the former dropping by 15% and the latter falling even more sharply, down by 22%. This wave of activity has been ongoing since the bull market started in October last year, as early investors began to sell off Bitcoin, totaling around 1.7 million coins—it's a bit painful to say, with about 1 million of those sold at around $70,000.

At first glance, the market seems quite fierce, but it's not as pessimistic as it looks. What does a real bear market look like? Institutional risk positions keep exploding, leading to chain reactions of liquidations. Over the past two years, most of the casualties have been retail investors. Although some institutions did get hit in October, they managed their risk well, and their losses were entirely within controllable limits—no serious damage was done.

Looking at the data from a different perspective, we are still in a super cycle. The characteristics of this cycle are very clear—it will shake off most people. Especially those veteran players who shifted to other tracks or sold their coins in the past two years. Although they profited from this wave, the assets they exchanged for the 1.7 million Bitcoin are insignificant in the context of global financial assets, effectively meaning they have been severely diluted.

One phenomenon must be acknowledged: retail investors, the main force, have basically been cleared out, especially in the Chinese-speaking regions. Over the past two years, they have truly been pushed out. No matter how big the market moves in the future, it will be a game among institutions. The market structure has already changed.