Since the launch of the BTC spot ETF, the market has exhibited an interesting cyclical pattern.

Looking back at past trends, the most obvious feature is: after two consecutive months of net selling, the third month usually reverses to net buying, followed by a price increase. The last time this pattern was particularly clear was in February and March 2025, when sustained net selling caused prices to decline until April, when ETF holdings began to build, and the market started to strengthen.

Interestingly, this time the pattern seems to be repeating. November and December have both seen two consecutive months of net selling, putting the market under obvious pressure. Based on this historical cycle, could January 2026 become a key turning point? Will the ETF start to reverse course, shifting from selling to accumulation? This question is worth paying attention to.

BTC price movements are often closely linked to large capital flows, and changes in ETF holdings can, to some extent, reflect the true intentions of institutions. If this cyclical pattern continues, next month’s performance might provide an answer.