The supply change after Bitcoin halving has been permanently locked in by mathematical rules

null Bitcoin’s fourth halving occurred on April 20, 2024

The fourth Bitcoin block reward halving took place on April 20, 2024, at block height 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This process strictly follows the predetermined issuance mechanism in the Bitcoin protocol, with halving automatically triggered every 210,000 blocks.

This supply adjustment is automatically executed by Bitcoin’s consensus rules, requiring no governance votes or human intervention, further reinforcing the certainty, transparency, and immutability of Bitcoin’s monetary policy.

Bitcoin’s daily new issuance decreases by 50%

After the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin’s daily new issuance mathematically drops from approximately 900 BTC/day to about 450 BTC/day. This change is based on the fixed 3.125 BTC block reward and an average block time of about 10 minutes.

On an annualized basis, Bitcoin’s new annual issuance decreases from approximately 328,500 BTC/year to about 164,250 BTC/year. This supply contraction is permanent and entirely independent of market demand, miner behavior, or macroeconomic conditions.

Annual supply inflation rate drops below 1%

As a direct result of the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annualized supply inflation rate decreases to approximately 0.83%. This figure is calculated based on the circulating supply at that time and the reduced issuance rate after halving.

In comparison, the annual supply growth rate of gold is typically estimated between 1% and 2%, while the money supply expansion rate of fiat systems depends on central bank policies rather than fixed rules embedded in code.

By the end of 2024, Bitcoin’s circulating supply will be about 19.7 million coins

Blockchain data shows that as of December 31, 2024, the circulating supply of Bitcoin is approximately 19.7 million BTC, leaving less than 1.3 million BTC unmined to reach the protocol’s maximum supply cap of 21 million BTC.

At this stage, over 93.8% of Bitcoin has been issued, meaning that future halvings will have a diminishing impact on the absolute supply quantity. However, their relative importance in percentage terms becomes even more significant.

Post-halving, miner revenue structure changes

The halving event overnight halves miners’ block subsidy income, significantly increasing the relative proportion of transaction fees in miners’ total revenue.

In the months following the halving, the proportion of transaction fees in miners’ income has increased noticeably compared to pre-halving levels. This change aligns with Bitcoin’s original long-term design expectation that network security will gradually shift from block subsidies to transaction fees as the primary economic model.

Supply is fixed, adjustments are complete

Unlike traditional financial systems where monetary policy can be adjusted based on economic conditions, Bitcoin’s supply change after the April 2024 halving is final and irreversible. There is no mechanism to accelerate issuance during demand surges or slow it down during market downturns.

By the end of 2024, the market is no longer facing an “imminent halving event” but a completed adjustment with a low issuance baseline that will continue until the next halving, which is expected around 2028. At that time, the block reward will again decrease to 1.5625 BTC.

This chart shows the number of bitcoins that will exist in the near future. The Year is a forecast and may be slightly off.

From event to baseline conditions

With the full implementation of the fourth halving, Bitcoin’s low issuance rate is no longer a short-term narrative driver but has become a long-term fundamental condition. It reshapes its supply structure in a transparent, predictable manner, verifiable by any participant running a full node.

This change does not depend on market sentiment, policy signals, or institutional adoption pace. Instead, it is directly embedded in Bitcoin’s code and enforced by the entire network consensus, making the post-halving supply mechanism one of the few variables in the global financial system that can be precisely described mathematically.