#美联储回购协议计划 The Federal Reserve's policy shift, this time might really be a bit different.

CME Fed Funds Futures tools have just updated the latest data, and the market's attitude towards rate cuts is subtly changing.

The data looks like this: the probability of holding rates steady at the November meeting has risen to 82.3%, so a rate cut in the short term still seems uncertain. But what’s truly worth paying attention to is March—the probability of maintaining the current rate is now 46.7%, while the probability of at least a 25 basis point cut has reached 53.3%.

This is indeed a turning point. For the first time, the market's expectations for a rate cut have tilted from skepticism to anticipation.

In other words, the market has basically reached a consensus: no action in January, but there might be a move in March. Of course, this game is far from over—the probabilities of "holding steady" and "cutting rates" are nearly tied, and every upcoming inflation and employment report over the next two months could rewrite expectations.

So what should we keep an eye on next? US CPI data, PCE inflation index, and the non-farm payroll report. Any fluctuation in these three data points could ignite the expectation of a rate cut in March. For holders of the currency, this is a key variable that will determine the recent market trend.