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Christmas has come to an end, but the market's hangover hasn't woken up yet. Today is December 28th, caught in the awkward gap between the holiday and the New Year. Looking at the current BTC trend, it perfectly illustrates what is called "Holiday Syndrome."
Reflecting on the critical analysis before Christmas, BTC failed to break through the $90,000 mark, and the subsequent rebound around $87,000 was deemed a textbook "bearish retest trap." In hindsight, this judgment indeed saved many people. Now, $90,000 has become the most difficult ceiling to break this winter.
What is the current market situation? Simply put, it's a game of dialogue between robots and robots.
First, there is a liquidity vacuum period. Major institutional traders in Europe and America are on vacation, and the real funds in the market are scarce. Second, those frequent jittery fluctuations on the chart are mainly quant bots trading among themselves in an order book lacking depth. During such periods, technical patterns are most likely to deceive—breakouts look like false breakouts, and breakdowns look like false breakdowns.
But don't completely let your guard down. When liquidity is extremely scarce, the risk is at its highest. The year-end closing effect may cause funds to adjust their positions in the last two days, possibly leading to an unanticipated rapid surge or plunge. The surface may seem calm, but undercurrents are surging.