2025-12-28 15:24:02

The TVL risk of Pendle is worth vigilance. Data shows that 41% of its locked assets are concentrated in Ethena's USDe/sUSDe — that's where the problem lies. When Ethena's supply was halved from $14.8b to $7.2b, Pendle also experienced bleeding. The result? The token dropped 73% from its all-time high. Even with support from the Bloomberg index, and even with Arthur Hayes investing $2 million, the downward trend could not be reversed.

In terms of revenue, the protocol generates $9 million each quarter, which is not small. But this cannot hide the structural issues — the risk of over-reliance on a single ecosystem. When the main source of income shrinks in scale and there is not enough diversification to buffer, the project falls into a passive situation. This is not just short-term volatility but exposes the fragility of its growth model.

PENDLE0.47%

ENA-2.9%

USDE-0.04%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

13 Likes

Reward
13
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GasOptimizer

· 3h ago

41% is concentrated on USDe? That's not concentration risk, that's suicidal... Just look at Ethena's halving and how Pendle crashed along with it, structural problems can't be fixed.

View OriginalReply0

ChainComedian

· 3h ago

41% leveraged on USDe? That's not concentration risk, that's suicidal gambling. Ethena gets a cold just from a sneeze by Pendle, no wonder there's a 73% drop. Even Arthur Hayes throwing 2 million can't save it, what does that say? Structural issues can't be solved with money at all. Just hoping Bloomberg's halo can turn things around? That's too naive. Why is diversification so difficult? Forcing all in on a single ecosystem isn't being tough on yourself, it's being tough on LPs. What are liquidity mining projects most afraid of? Being trapped in a single track, and Pendle is a vivid example of that. How about a quarterly revenue of 9 million? If the foundation is rotten, everything else is useless. DeFi is just that brutal.

View OriginalReply0

BoredStaker

· 3h ago

41% betting on one ecosystem? Isn't that gambling? That's exactly gambling. --- Arthur Hayes has thrown money into it but still can't save it, indicating the problem is really deep. --- Quarterly revenue of 9 million sounds good, but it can't sustain the main cash cow. --- Ethena was cut from 14.8 billion to 7.2 billion, Pendle was halved... this is the cost of high coupling. --- Structural problems are always more deadly than short-term declines; this time, the true nature has been exposed. --- Diversification sounds easy, but how many projects are truly doing it? Pendle is obviously not. --- Behind the 73% drop are actually four words: all in one. --- Bloomberg endorsement is useless; if the ecosystem itself has issues, no one can save it.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-ccc36bc5

· 3h ago

41% concentrated on one ecosystem, if this isn't gambling, what is? Ethena shrinks, Pendle has to be sacrificed, it feels like no lessons have been learned at all.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-e87b21ee

· 3h ago

Whoa, 41% of the pressure is on Ethena, isn't this asking for death... Pendle really screwed up this time. --- Quarterly revenue of 9 million sounds impressive, but the structural issues can't be ignored. Dependence on a single ecosystem is truly deadly. --- Even Bloomberg endorses it and Hayes is pouring money in, yet it still drops 73%. What does that mean? It shows that fundamentals are king. --- No diversification buffer and going all-in on a single ecosystem, this project management is really reckless. --- Ethena getting cut in half and Pendle following as a sacrificial lamb—that's what we call ecosystem risk, everyone. --- I just want to know when Pendle can stop relying on Ethena to survive. It really can't be saved like this. --- 41% is outrageous... where was the brain during product design? --- It hurts just looking at it. Short-term fluctuations? This isn't fluctuation; it's a systemic risk outbreak.

View OriginalReply0

GasGoblin

· 3h ago

41% leverage on USDe… This isn’t leverage, it’s gambling. Pendle really messed up this time. --- Even Arthur Hayes can’t save it, let alone Bloomberg. The structure is completely broken. --- Quarterly revenue of 9 million sounds good, but it all depends on a single ecosystem… Eventually, it will crash. --- Falling from 14.8b to 7.2b, Pendle is also taking the fall. This is the reality of DeFi. --- Diversification is a false proposition, isn’t making quick money more appealing? Otherwise, why go all in like this? --- A 73% decline, even with Bloomberg’s backing, it’s useless. It says everything. --- Over-concentration risk seems simple in theory, but why do project teams keep falling into the trap? --- Instead of blaming Pendle, it’s better to reflect on your own investment logic… How are those all-in positions doing now?

View OriginalReply0