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There is an interesting match in the tennis world this week—current world number one Swiatek against Kiryios. On the surface, it looks a bit lopsided. But looking at the data from the crypto prediction market Polymarket makes it quite interesting.
Swiatek's odds are close to 7x returns, while Kiryios has only a meager 1.2x. The market's expectations are clear.
From the data perspective, Swiatek is indeed the absolute favorite:
- Currently ranked number one in the world
- Four Grand Slam titles
- In peak physical condition
But the 1.2x odds indicate that there are also many bets on Kiryios. What signals does this reflect? Sometimes, market sentiment itself is the best story. The data is there; who the real winner is will be known after the match.