2025-12-28 15:24:43

To be honest.

Recently, the pressure has been quite high. The fan community's expectations are always very high, and we genuinely want to help everyone make money through trading analysis. Our swing trading win rate is good, and we haven't really stepped into many pitfalls, so naturally, we want to help everyone maximize gains with small investments.
But the problem lies right here — I say set a 20-point stop loss for Ethereum, and a bunch of people turn around and go all-in. Don’t be fooled by the high win rate; playing with a 90% win rate like this will still lead to death.
A simple calculation makes it clear. Suppose you have a $1,000 capital, win 5 trades in a row, earning 100 points each time, and your account grows to $3,000. If the sixth trade loses 20 points and you still hold a large position, your account could be halved instantly. Lose two more trades, and your account is wiped out. Trying to capture 100 points of profit cannot withstand a 40-point loss — this is not a logical trading approach.
That’s why I keep emphasizing across all platforms: fixed position sizing! Fixed position sizing! Fixed position sizing!
For example, with a $10,000 account, each trade involves 10 ETH, regardless of the win rate. Earning 1,000 points in a month and losing 300 points still leaves you with a steady 700 points of profit. That’s compound interest — the real power to change your fate.
But today, I want to think a step deeper: trading discipline can only control your own hands, but it cannot control the inherent "black box" risks of the market itself.
No matter how perfect your position control is, encountering a whale suddenly dumping, liquidity drying up, or oracle data being attacked… even the most sophisticated strategy can collapse overnight.
So, the true "ultimate discipline" is not only in your trading spreadsheets but also in the entire market’s data infrastructure. That’s why I’ve started shifting some of my focus from simply monitoring the charts to observing the innovative developments building the next-generation market infrastructure — especially in the areas of oracles and data verification.

ETH0.23%

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RunWhenCut

· 3h ago

Oh, this is the real truth. I've seen too many cases where a 90% win rate still ends in liquidation, really. I've said it many times about fixed position sizing, but some people still don't listen and insist on going all in. But honestly, no matter how perfect the position management is, it can't withstand black swan events and whale attacks. This is the point I've been thinking about recently.

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RugPullAlertBot

· 3h ago

Buddy, that really hits home. Going all-in with a 90% win rate still ends in death. I've seen this happen many times.

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LayerZeroHero

· 3h ago

It has been proven that a high win rate cannot prevent the suicidal strategy of leverage all-in... I have tested this logic countless times in practical experiments.

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LiquidatedAgain

· 4h ago

Starting to recite again, I've heard the fixed position set a hundred times, but when it comes to the moment of a crash, the oracle gets stuck, and position management can't save me.

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GasGuru

· 4h ago

Bro, what you just said really hit home. I've seen a lot of fans go all-in... But the problem is, when it comes to black box risks, no matter how strict the discipline is, it's useless.

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