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About how to position before the market starts moving, the logic is quite straightforward—it's about understanding the distribution of chips on this cost map. The main force can deceive with candlestick patterns, but the traces of large capital inflows and outflows can't be hidden and will always reveal themselves on the chip distribution chart.
First, let's clarify what the chip distribution is actually looking at. Simply put, it visualizes the costs of all market participants holding positions. On the chart, red bars represent profitable holdings, blue bars represent trapped losses, and thicker bars indicate more chips accumulated at that price. The most concentrated "hill" is the chip peak—the area where most people's costs converge. When analyzing this, two key points should be noted: where is the chip peak located (bottom accumulation or scattered at high levels)? How concentrated is the chip (held by large institutions or scattered retail investors)?
**The three most practical early signals**
Signal 1: Low-level single peak with dense volume breakout. This is my most commonly used bottom-fishing signal. When the price consolidates for a long time, and the chips gradually compress into a sharp "single peak," it indicates that the main force has finished accumulating, and the market's understanding of the cost is highly unified. Once the volume suddenly increases (usually more than 30% above normal) and effectively breaks through the top of the chip peak, it confirms that the shakeout is over, and the upward wave is about to begin.
Experience: The longer the consolidation period and the sharper the single peak, the greater the potential for subsequent gains. I used this approach with ORDI—after two months of consolidation forming a single peak, I entered on the volume breakout, and the price surged over 60% in two weeks.
Signal 2: Stable bottom chip peak that does not break. This indicates extremely solid support at the bottom, and the main force won't disappoint buyers at the unit cost of the bottom. When the price approaches this chip peak again, it is often the safest point to add positions.
Signal 3: Rapid disappearance of the high-level chip peak. As the trapped positions at high levels are gradually digested and exit the chart quickly, it means selling pressure is weakening, and the upward space is opening up.
The core of reading chip distribution is: how much does the main force hold, and where are retail investors' costs? Combining these two pieces of information, the market's direction can be roughly predicted.