The market has dropped again. BTC fell below $87,000, with Ethereum and SOL following downward, and the market is filled with pessimism. Many people are scared into panic selling by news of a "government shutdown," but if you've experienced the 2018 market cycle, you'll understand: this is not a crisis at all, simply a "panic harvest scheme."

**What exactly is a shutdown?**

The so-called government shutdown mainly involves the two parties tearing each other apart over budget negotiations. Non-essential departments are temporarily closed, and news coverage is overwhelming. But there's a key data point that's often overlooked: historically, during 5 shutdowns, bills were passed in about 4 days on average. No matter how much politicians argue, no one dares to risk their votes.

**Why do retail investors always get out at the worst times?**

The 2018 cycle is a classic example. When the shutdown hit, BTC dropped from $43,000 all the way down to $39,000. People scared out of their wits sold off. And what happened next? Once the bill was passed, it rebounded to $46,000 within 3 days. Those who panic-sold back then probably regret it now.

The same pattern was seen in September 2021 during the altcoin crash. The market was in chaos, but within 48 hours of the vote passing, infrastructure leaders like DOT and SOL rebounded over 20%.

The logic behind retail investors' losses is actually very fixed: they don't dare to act during panic, but chase aggressively when prices rise. The result? Buying at high points and selling at lows. How many times has this cycle repeated? The essence of crypto market volatility is emotional swings—those who truly make money are often those who remain rational during panic.