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The Bank of Japan has made a firm decision this time.
Having been dormant for thirty years, it has finally turned around. The meeting minutes show a very determined stance—continue to raise interest rates after December. The current 0.75% rate is the highest in thirty years, but their pace is clear—there's more to come.
The reasons are solid. Inflation has remained above 2% for four years, yet real interest rates are still negative, causing people's money to depreciate. The yen has been weak for a long time, import prices are not coming down, and the authorities have already signaled—"frequent rate hikes."
The biggest change is that the era of negative interest rates has truly ended. Capital that relied on cheap yen for global arbitrage is now fleeing. The fluctuations in Japanese stocks, bonds, and forex are footprints of their retreat.
The central bank's roadmap is laid out: there's still a distance to the neutral interest rate, and rate hikes are only halfway through.
This is not just Japan's issue. Yen volatility is increasing, and hard assets like gold and silver are being reevaluated. Global liquidity is now facing dual tightening—The Federal Reserve is acting as planned, and the Bank of Japan has officially joined this camp.
If Japan's rate hikes continue, those large-scale carry trade structures may loosen, putting pressure on the dollar, U.S. bonds, and emerging markets.
For the crypto market, this is a real test of liquidity tightening. On one hand, there is pressure; on the other, such volatility may also create new opportunities. Whether you can seize them depends critically on whether you are prepared.