In the past month, the information warfare surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation has been intense. High-level officials have repeatedly made statements claiming significant breakthroughs in the peace negotiations, with a consensus level reaching 90%. However, looking back at the battlefield, reality has delivered a loud slap.

Since the Russian military launched its largest-scale wave of airstrikes, over 500 drones have targeted Kyiv's energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Putin continues to insist on his original demands — Ukraine must cede territory in the east. These are conditions that Ukraine simply cannot accept. Digging deeper, the disagreements over core issues such as control of nuclear power plants, security assurance mechanisms, and NATO's eastward expansion remain substantial, with no real basis for consensus.

The question is: is this merely a "market manipulation" in public opinion, or a substantive breakthrough at the negotiation table?

What does this contradictory phenomenon mean for the market? If a peace agreement is truly reached, global risk sentiment could reverse, and the flow of traditional funds might change accordingly, reducing the attractiveness of safe-haven assets. Conversely, if negotiations break down again, geopolitical turmoil will remain the main market theme, and demand for cryptocurrencies like BTC as safe-haven assets could be reinforced.

Will this years-long geopolitical game reach its conclusion in 2026? For traders, the key is to distinguish: are they trading based on market expectations, or on the actual fundamentals?