#预测市场 Seeing this article about the risks of manipulation in prediction markets, I am reminded of an important point — we are always easily fooled by short-term "signals."

The hypothetical scenario mentioned in the article for 2028 is quite thought-provoking: market prices soar, media frenzy, accusations of manipulation from all sides… and in the end, the truth is drowned in panic. This makes me think that whether it’s prediction markets or investing itself, we can easily fall into a vicious cycle — being driven by price fluctuations, forgetting to consider the underlying fundamentals.

Historical examples illustrate this even better. The 1916 presidential election, the 2012 InTrade large orders, and even Trump’s abnormal surge on Polymarket in 2024, each sparked controversy but ultimately proved to have limited impact. This teaches me a simple truth: **Genuine sound judgment should not overly rely on any single signal, nor should it be hostage to short-term volatility**.

I want to emphasize that in an era of information overload and AI-generated fake public opinion, maintaining skepticism and multi-dimensional verification becomes especially important. Don’t just look at market prices; also consider polls, fundamentals, and historical patterns. When unexplained abnormal fluctuations occur, ask "why" a few more times instead of rushing to follow the trend. The final advice also gave me inspiration — transparency, regulation, and rational rather than panic-driven interpretation are necessary. This aligns with the logic of making investment decisions: see clearly, think comprehensively, and stay grounded.