Bitcoin Whales Wake Up by the End of 2025: Market Signals and Opportunities Behind Billions of Dollars Transferred in a Single Day

According to Gate market data, as of December 29, Bitcoin price has been fluctuating within the range of $86,500 to $90,000. Today, it briefly touched $90,200 before slightly retreating, currently reporting at $89,650.

Beneath the seemingly calm surface of the market, on-chain data reveals a completely different story: “Whales” holding over 10,000 BTC have been continuously selling since August, while smaller wallets holding less than 1,000 BTC remain steadily in accumulation mode.

01 The awakening of whales amid market volatility

The Bitcoin market in 2025 shows clear institutional characteristics. According to Glassnode’s accumulation trend score data, large holders with over 10,000 BTC have been playing the role of “persistent sellers” for three consecutive months.

This selling behavior aligns with Bitcoin’s overall consolidation trend this year, with prices stabilizing around the $100,000 level.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that a large amount of previously dormant Bitcoin has re-entered circulation. The asset flows of these long-term holders have exerted significant downward pressure on the current market prices.

Market fragmentation is becoming increasingly evident: on one side, whales are continuously distributing, while on the other, small holders are steadfastly accumulating.

02 The triple reasons behind large whale transfers

Multiple factors combined to trigger abnormal activity among Bitcoin whales at the end of 2025. These factors include changes in the macroeconomic environment and structural adjustments within the cryptocurrency market itself.

The primary driver is the clarification of the global regulatory environment. On July 18, 2025, the “GENIUS Act,” regarded as the fundamental law for the crypto industry, officially took effect.

This is the first federal regulatory framework in U.S. history targeting stablecoins and digital assets, clearing legal obstacles for banks to participate in crypto custody.

Also in 2025, leading exchanges like Gate made significant progress in global compliance, obtaining several important licenses, including the EU’s MiCA license.

Secondly, there is a structural imbalance between institutional demand and mining supply. According to a report by 99Bitcoins, corporate and institutional buyers absorb about 1,755 BTC daily, far exceeding the 900 BTC daily mining output.

This supply-demand relationship has strengthened Bitcoin’s role as a “capital absorber,” especially in an environment where traditional safe-haven assets are losing appeal.

The third key factor is the interaction between market cycles and price signals. After reaching a historic high of about $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant correction, with the price dropping approximately 25% from its peak as of December 29. This volatility has created a profit-taking window for long-term holders.

03 From market fragmentation to investment strategies

Faced with the divergence between whale and retail investor behaviors, different investors need to adopt tailored strategies to respond to market changes. The behavioral patterns revealed by on-chain data provide important basis for strategy formulation.

Long-term investors should focus on potential accumulation opportunities for Bitcoin in the $110,000 to $130,000 range. This strategy is based on the continued inflow of institutional funds and the gradual narrowing of Bitcoin’s volatility.

Meanwhile, short-term traders may need to pay closer attention to market sentiment and liquidity changes. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen to its lowest point since November 2023, a signal worth monitoring closely.

For investors seeking diversification, tokenized real-world assets offer new options. Driven by clearer regulatory policies and DeFi innovations, this sector is expected to reach a scale of $2 trillion by 2028.

04 Historical comparison of whale behavior and cycle positioning

Compared to previous cycles, the whale activity at the end of 2025 exhibits more complex features. Glassnode’s data shows that, although the total supply of Bitcoin sold over three months increased by 12%, the non-liquid supply held for over a year decreased by only 2%.

This contradictory phenomenon indicates that whales, while taking profits, still maintain confidence in the long-term outlook and are reluctant to fully lock in gains and exit.

Market analysts suggest that the current Bitcoin market may be in a “belief-denial” phase, characterized by mixed optimistic and cautious sentiments. The decline in prices and related indicators in late September hints that the market has entered a reset phase, setting the stage for a new cycle turning point.

From a macro perspective, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies in 2025 has experienced a historic leap from about $1.6 trillion to over $4 trillion.

This growth was mainly driven by institutional funds, with Bitcoin spot ETFs and other institutional channels net inflows of $44.2 billion in 2024-2025, representing 5.7%-7.4% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin.

Future outlook

As Bitcoin hovered around $90,000 near the high point on December 29, an unusual trading record was flashing on the data panel of a well-known analysis firm. Bitcoin worth over $80 million was transferred between unknown wallets, not a panic sell, but more like a carefully planned asset reorganization.

Meanwhile, Gate’s global user base has exceeded 47 million, with its monthly spot trading volume reaching $160 billion at the end of 2025. This company, evolving from a trading platform into a comprehensive Web3 ecosystem, is witnessing a profound transformation of the crypto market from “retail-driven” to “institution-led.”