#比特币与黄金战争 Regarding the popularity issues in this bear market, I have some observations I’d like to share.

Compared to the top of the 2021 rally, where activity remained relatively high until August 2022, the real lull only occurred in the two months following the FTX collapse, when activity was sparse.

This time is different. We started weakening from the seasonal top in October, and in just three months, participation dropped sharply. Why is that? The core reason is—this top itself wasn’t as lively.

The decline from a popularity score of 100 to 10 is a slow process, but once it slides from 30 to 10, the speed accelerates dramatically. What does this mean? According to market cycle patterns, the bottom is likely to appear much earlier.

Looking at the performance of major coins like $BTC, $ETH, $BNB, combined with on-chain activity data, the logic becomes clearer. It’s not that the bear market is ending immediately, but that the duration of this bear cycle might be more compressed than expected.