Today, I want to share my overall assessment of this wave of market movements across the monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly levels. The core conclusion is actually quite simple: the main trend has not reversed, but now it's about waiting for the rhythm.

**How to view the monthly chart? The decline is far from over**

Do you remember the 126,000 level? I clearly pointed out back then that Bitcoin was transitioning from a bullish to a bearish phase on both the weekly and monthly charts. Looking back now, the three-month decline from 106,000 to around 80,000 points has dropped several ten-thousand points, but honestly, this is not the end.

Where is the bottom of the price? It's difficult to give an exact number at the moment. However, historical cycles can offer some clues.

Looking at past data: each bullish cycle for Bitcoin typically lasts about 1000 to 1100 days, while bearish cycles usually last around 400 days. But the actual situation is more interesting — in the last two declines, the real duration was close to 365 days, basically a full year.

The peak of this rally is at October this year. If we consider the decline cycle as one year, the likely end point would be around October 2026, which is roughly the end of the third quarter of next year. So I tend to believe that: while it's hard to precisely judge the price, from a time cycle perspective, the bottom is most likely in the third quarter of next year.

**Don't use other assets to deny Bitcoin's downward logic**

Recently, some people have been citing the rise of gold, precious metals, or US stocks to argue that "Bitcoin has no reason to keep falling." This logic is actually flawed.