When looking at the candlestick chart, many people notice that the price has been repeatedly tested at that level three times. But if you think carefully, there are no significant positive news, no large influx of funds, and institutions have no strong backing.

If you still think this is a pre-breakout accumulation phase, then you are already caught in the most dangerous trap at the end of the year. The problem is not with the order book or the candlestick patterns; the true root cause can be summed up in four words—liquidity vacuum.

**Why Do Repeated Tests Always Fail**

Bitcoin has tested the 90K level three times, retreating each time. Most people's first reaction is "Wait a bit longer, it almost broke through." But in reality, the truly terrifying part is not just that it almost broke through, but that this kind of market behavior itself is very strange.

Looking back over the past three years, you will understand:

December 2021: Rises from 50K to 52K, looks stable, but three days later drops back to 47K. December 2022: Rises from 16.5K to 17.2K, then drops back to 16.3K within a week. December 2023: Rises from 40K to 44K, then drops back to 41K during Christmas week.

The pattern is very clear—rebound attempts never last more than 48 hours, then continue downward. So the question becomes, why do rebounds in mid to late December always seem as fragile as paper?

**Institutional Cold-Blooded Cycle**

The market loves to blame emotions, panic, and long-short battles, but by mid to late December, these reasons completely fail. The real culprit is the coldest phase of the year for US institutions— the lock-up period.

This is not about being bearish; it’s about not qualifying to continue betting. There are several main reasons: annual losses to offset taxes, quarter-end position adjustments, and financial statement pressures. During this period, institutions are too busy to care about the market; accounts are frozen, and they can only watch retail traders play by themselves.