2025-12-29 09:24:31

The crypto market is undergoing a profound paradigm shift. The market narrative of the four-year halving cycle is gradually fading, replaced by systematic allocations from institutional capital. The latest report from 21Shares explicitly describes the traditional halving cycle theory as "Broken."

Since 2025, market volatility has been intense—altcoins have generally retraced 70-80%, and Ethereum's price has returned to 2022 levels. But this is not a traditional bear market; rather, it is a market structure adjustment led by institutions. As asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity begin allocating Bitcoin to clients quarterly, the marginal impact of mining halving on prices has become negligible.

Bitcoin's identity is transforming—from a speculative tool to a mature financial asset. Fidelity's research indicates that the entry of sovereign reserve and wealth management institutions is shifting Bitcoin from a high-volatility risky asset to a safe-haven instrument. More aggressive predictions come from Bitwise: by 2026, Bitcoin's volatility may fall below that of Nvidia stock for the first time. What does this imply? Institutional investors are incorporating Bitcoin into long-term asset allocations—standard portfolios for pension funds, insurance assets, and family offices. Price discovery, liquidity, and valuation systems are all being rewritten. The future bull market's driving force will no longer be retail FOMO, but steady buying by institutional whales.

In a landscape where Bitcoin dominance exceeds 60%, Ethereum and BNB face new challenges. Ethereum needs to find differentiated value through staking yields and Layer2 ecosystems; BNB Chain relies on transaction efficiency and application scenarios to compete for position. Their stories have shifted from "rapid surge" to "stability with cash flow" and "practical application" phases.

The 2026 bull market will be led by institutions. ETFs will become the main source of liquidity, and quarterly rebalancing will serve as an important price-driving mechanism. The traditional four-year cycle thinking is outdated. Participants are faced with only two choices: either understand institutional logic and learn to think long-term like fund managers, or be permanently excluded in this cleansing process.

BTC-0.44%

ETH-0.74%

BNB-0.81%

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DataOnlooker

· 5h ago

Retail investors' FOMO era is really over. Now it's all about who can keep up with the institutions' pace. --- After the halving theory broke, I feel like my previous trading logic has to be completely overturned. --- Wait, is Bitcoin's volatility lower than Nvidia? That sounds unbelievable but it might actually be possible... --- Seven or eight out of ten altcoins are retracing. I knew this wasn't just a simple bear market; the washout feels too strong. --- The quarterly rebalancing strategy used by institutions is something retail investors simply can't compete with. It's time to change our approach. --- Ethereum's rapid surge to proving cash flow is a pretty big shift. --- Bitcoin is really transforming from a gambling asset into part of a diversified portfolio. The landscape has changed. --- If you don't understand institutional logic, you're really just out. It sounds a bit absolute, but it's true. --- The entry of players like BlackRock and Fidelity has indeed rewritten the rules of the game. --- BNB is still trying to differentiate itself, but it definitely feels more pressured than before.

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GasGrillMaster

· 5h ago

The halving theory is dead, the institutional theory is alive... It sounds pretty impressive, but when your account starts shrinking, who cares about grand narratives? Retail investors are truly the ones being harvested this time, still watching the institutions slowly push prices up with a smile. Ethereum's days are a bit tough right now. Can staking rewards save it? It still feels uncertain.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 5h ago

Woke up, the halving cycle is dead, now it's a game played by institutional big players.

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AmateurDAOWatcher

· 6h ago

Retail investors being wiped out has become a certainty; this wave really can't compete with institutional funds Institutional buying slowly pushes forward, retail investors FOMO and sell off, no matter how good the story is, it’s useless The halving bankruptcy theory has been obvious for a long time; it's a bit late to mention it now Ethereum truly needs to prove its value this time, or it will be finished ETFs are the real killer weapon; individual players should start thinking about how to survive

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TommyTeacher1

· 6h ago

Retail investors, it's time to wake up. The story of the halving cycle is really outdated. Institutions are playing chess, and we're still looking at K-line charts. What about Ethereum? It feels abandoned. This round of liquidation is quite intense; small-cap coins basically have no chance. Bitcoin's role as a stable asset has changed. What does that mean? We need to think carefully. Altcoins have dropped 70-80%. Many people are probably out of the game. Will retail investors learn the quarterly rebalancing strategy?

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TooScaredToSell

· 6h ago

Honestly, the halving theory should have gone bankrupt by now, but I still can't understand how institutions are playing it. When altcoins dropped 70-80%, I was thinking, is this really a washout or what? Wait for the ETF quarterly rebalancing to determine bull or bear? That seems a bit far-fetched.

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BTCBeliefStation

· 6h ago

Sell off the clone coins to buy BTC—that's all the lessons I learned in 2023. Is it true that Bitcoin's volatility is really lower than Nvidia's? Then our industry has truly become a cash machine for pension funds. Institutions are coming in, but it actually feels less exciting; the crazy feeling from before is gone. Broken is right; the halving narrative really needs to die. I really can't wait until 2026; it's too torturous.

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