#预测市场 Is the prediction market being manipulated by AI? This is the real black swan.🔥 Imagine a big whale manipulating the price sky-high, then CNN follows suit with reports, retail investors see the candlestick chart and jump in FOMO... By the time the truth is revealed, it's already too late. This trick might really play out in 2028.😅

The key is that markets with poor liquidity are most easily cut. Rhode and Strumpf's research has long proven that manipulation costs are high and easily countered by arbitrage. But in an era of social media and 24-hour news bombardment, even brief price fluctuations can spark a storm of public opinion—this is the real threat. Not directly affecting votes, but destroying trust.

The most heartbreaking part is that even if manipulation fails, people will still accuse of "foreign interference" and "elite collusion." The example of the French investor on Polymarket last year illustrates everything—conspiracy theories without evidence can still trigger panic.😏

The solution is actually quite clear: media must only report on markets with sufficient liquidity, platforms need to establish anti-manipulation monitoring systems, and policymakers should use antitrust laws to combat such behavior. Transparency is key—publicly disclose order books and abnormal trading patterns so retail investors can see through the tricks.

Prediction markets themselves are not the problem; the ecosystem just isn't ready. If this system can be streamlined, in an era where AI is everywhere, it could truly become a more trustworthy signal source than polls. But the prerequisite is that someone keeps this gate closed.🚨