2025-12-29 09:27:49

A piece of data surprised me.

The latest statistics show that over 7 million Bitcoins are currently in a loss, accounting for 33% of the total circulating supply. In other words—out of every 3 Bitcoins, 1 is trapped in a loss. This ratio has hit a new high in the current cycle.

At first glance, this data might seem alarming, but what does it really mean? There are two very different opinions in the market.

**One perspective sees this as**

The ultimate signal of market fear. Historical experience shows—whenever losses reach extreme levels, it often signals that market sentiment has bottomed out. In other words, those who should have sold have sold, and those who need to sell have already done so. From this angle, the true bottom is just around the corner. This is a classic opportunity to be "greedy when others are fearful."

**The other camp is much more cautious**

They see lurking risks. Those 7 million coins are like a sword hanging overhead. Once the price rebounds to near the cost basis of those trapped, it’s highly likely to trigger a wave of concentrated selling—people rushing to cut losses. This will form a heavy wall of selling pressure, enough to crush the rebound. According to this logic, to break out of a real bull market, we first need to swallow this heavy pressure of distressed positions.

**My view**

The data itself is cold, but market sentiment is boiling hot. These 7 million loss-making Bitcoins clearly reflect the current state of the market—deep pain mixed with divergence.

From here, the next market script probably looks like this: any upward movement will not be smooth. Every rally will face targeted sell-offs, repeatedly, full of uncertainty. To break out of a trendful upward phase, either we wait long enough for this pressure to naturally dissipate, or we need an external shock—new storylines, massive capital inflows, something to break the deadlock.

The current game rule is: being smarter than everyone else doesn’t cut it; being more patient does. The market is using losses to teach every participant.

BTC-0.44%

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BoredWatcher

· 1h ago

Damn, 33%... It might take until the Year of the Monkey to get out of this. --- Every rebound gets sniped, this feeling really sucks. That's exactly how I feel right now. --- Basically, just wait. Anyway, panicking won't help; the market teaches the harshest lessons. --- 7 million swords? Looks like this wave will last a few more months... --- When others are greedy, I am greedy too. As a result, I'm now stuck in this 33%, haha. --- It sounds hopeless, but isn't this the best opportunity to buy the dip? The key is who can hold on. --- The pressure on chips is so heavy, imagining a bull market is really hard. --- Patience... sounds easy, but who can stay patient when the account shrinks by 50%? --- If this data is real, then the power of the short squeeze is indeed formidable.

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FlashLoanLord

· 5h ago

Whoa, 33%？This wave is really crazy... We're just simmering the soup here. Waiting again? Fine, anyway the coins can't run away, let's see who can hold on longer. Every rebound gets cut, I'm the one getting cut. Bottom in sight? Haha, I hear that every year, I don't believe you. 700 million tokens pressed down, is this what they call an "opportunity"? I think it's a "trap." Patience... it's easy to say, but my wallet is screaming. How much longer do I have to endure this round? Damn. When they keep cutting my greens, remember to be gentle. I really don't know whether to be scared or greedy, my brain just can't keep up. Why is the wall of stop-loss orders so thick?

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GasSavingMaster

· 6h ago

Who is this still talking about the old "bottom signal"... 7 million coins being trapped is basically a time bomb, do we have to wait for it to explode to consider it over? --- Basically, it's just retail investors' blood and sweat ledger. The scarier the data looks, the more dangerous it actually is. --- It's just a gamble on who admits defeat first. When the short-term recovery appears, the price is immediately hammered back to the ground. --- Patience is easy to talk about, but when your account is shrinking day by day, who can stay calm? --- It feels like we're just waiting now, hoping a big whale will come to rescue the market or continue to sink, there’s no third way. --- The crypto world is always repeating the same story, just with different protagonists. --- The real test is coming—are those still bottom-fishing really experts or just gamblers? --- That's why I don't chase highs or bottom-fish. Looking at this situation, it's a bit exhausting.

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GamefiEscapeArtist

· 6h ago

Really, 33% is a bit outrageous... Feels like it's about to verify the "fear of others" theory? ---- The trapped positions are definitely a trap; whenever there's a rebound, they get targeted, cycle... That's the current situation. ---- Wait, with so many coins trapped, how much could they drop if everything crashes? ---- Patience... I've heard this so many times, and every time I die from impatience haha. ---- 7 million coins are hanging at the top; it feels like the bottom hasn't been reached yet. Anyway, I'll just keep lying flat.

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OnchainHolmes

· 6h ago

The wall of the short squeeze... You really have to be patient and endure it. I'm used to being sniped down again and again. Basically, it's a gamble on who can hold on longer. Without a new storyline coming in, there's no way to make any tricks. This data is actually asking—are you trying to bottom out or just want to survive and withdraw? My goodness, 33% ratio... just looking at it makes me anxious. Bottom? Ha, first understand the pressure of these 7 million coins, then talk. It's not that simple. Instead of guessing the bottom, it's better to learn to wait. Truly.

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