2025-12-29 09:30:12

Many people are pessimistic about the popularity of the crypto space, but I want to compare some data.

Taking the peak of 2021 as an example, even after the decline, there were still a bunch of active users by August 2022. The real ice age was during the two months when FTX爆雷 happened, when it was completely deserted.

This round is a bit different. Starting from the seasonal peak in October, people dispersed in less than three months. Why did it fall so quickly? I think it’s still determined by the nature of the peak.

The previous peak was a lively scene—全民狂欢, with explosive enthusiasm. This time is different; from the beginning, the enthusiasm wasn’t as high. When the热度 drops from 100 to 10, the process is slow; but dropping from 30 to 10 happens quickly, with a completely different acceleration.

Following this logic, the bottom rebound timing point theoretically will also appear earlier. The rapid decay period of热度 decline often corresponds to an提前到来的底部, which is a relative pattern.

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HappyMinerUncle

· 5h ago

This perspective is interesting; the different levels of popularity indeed determine the rate of decay... By the way, it was about time to buy the dip.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 5h ago

The popularity dropped from 30 to 10 quite quickly, but can it really rebound this time? I'm a bit unsure.

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LiquidationWizard

· 5h ago

People disperse quickly because the initial enthusiasm wasn't high enough. This wave doesn't have the nationwide carnival atmosphere like in 2021. Dropping from 30 to 10 is of course much faster than dropping from 100 to 90.

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zkProofGremlin

· 5h ago

This logic is interesting. Dropping from 30 to 10 is indeed much faster than dropping from 100 to 10. The analysis of acceleration is quite thorough.

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HalfPositionRunner

· 6h ago

Wow, this logic is pretty awesome. Dropping from 30 to 10 is definitely much faster than dropping from 100 to 10.

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SchroedingerAirdrop

· 6h ago

Hmm, that's interesting. I get the logic now. The hype never really took off, and now that it’s dropping quickly, isn’t that a good thing? You're right, that wave of FTX was truly a nightmare. The fact that people are dispersing quickly this time might actually indicate that the bottom is really near. The acceleration from 30 to 10 is indeed different; I’m a bit worried that the coins I hold might surge along with it. But I still think this cold spell is too thorough. Can a rebound really happen so quickly? Based on what you said, should I start bottom-fishing now? What does everyone think?

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