PA Daily | Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $782 million last week; Digital RMB wallet balances will accrue interest starting January 1, 2026

Today’s News Highlights:

Lu Lei: The “Action Plan” implemented from January 1, 2026, clarifies that digital renminbi wallet balances can earn interest

Analysis: Copper may face structural shortages in 2026, and prices could remain strong

UBS raises target prices for gold in March, June, and September 2026 to $5,000

Lu Lei: Future digital renminbi will have the liability attributes of commercial banks, with functions including a monetary value scale, value storage, and cross-border payments

Opinion: Although gold and silver prices may experience profit-taking pressure in the short term, long-term macro factors will continue to support precious metal prices rising

Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow of $782 million last week, BlackRock IBIT led with a net outflow of $435 million

Macro

Analysis: Copper may face structural shortages in 2026, and prices could remain strong

Copper prices surged over 30% in 2025, breaking the $12,000 per ton record in December, marking the largest annual increase since 2009. Analysts expect that the global shift to renewable energy, electrification, and AI data center construction will continue to drive copper demand, keeping prices strong in 2026. Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals demand analyst at StoneX, said high copper prices may lead manufacturers to seek alternatives, potentially suppressing demand in some non-essential sectors. Alastair Munro, strategist at Marex for base metals, pointed out that the market widely expects a structural copper shortage starting in 2026. Additionally, U.S. tariffs have caused a surge of copper imports, with Comex inventories reaching historic highs, while European LME stocks fell below 20,000 tons, creating regional supply-demand tensions. Albert Mackenzie, analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, believes the surge in U.S. inventories has fueled supply concerns. Alice Fox, strategist at Macquarie, predicts copper prices will remain high through 2026. Previously, news reported that London copper prices broke $12,000 per ton again, reaching a new high.

UBS raises target prices for gold in March, June, and September 2026 to $5,000

UBS stated that they remain bullish and have raised their gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $5,000 per ounce (from previous $4,500). They expect gold prices to slightly decline to $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026.

State Council Tariff and Taxation Commission releases “2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan”

The State Council Tariff and Taxation Commission released the “2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan,” effective from January 1, 2026. The adjustment aims to promote high-quality development, optimize tariff classifications, and continue implementing negotiated and preferential tariffs. Main points include: applying provisional lower-than-MFN tariffs to 935 goods, including key technology components, green transition resources, and medical products; removing provisional tariffs on some goods to restore MFN rates, such as micro-motors and printing machines; adding new tariff items like intelligent bionic robots and bio-aviation kerosene, adjusting the total number of tariff items to 8,972; continuing zero tariffs for 43 least developed countries and applying preferential rates for some ASEAN imports.

Hong Kong to fully implement new banking capital standards based on Basel Committee crypto regulations from January 1

According to Caixin, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has confirmed that from January 1, 2026, it will fully implement new banking capital standards based on Basel Committee crypto asset regulations. The Basel definition of crypto assets includes private “digital assets” relying mainly on cryptography and distributed ledger technology or similar, defined as digital representations of value used for payments, investments, or acquiring goods/services. Not only Bitcoin and Ethereum, but also RWA, stablecoins, and others are included.

Lu Lei: Future digital renminbi will have the liability attributes of commercial banks, with functions including a monetary value scale, value storage, and cross-border payments

According to China Financial Times, Lu Lei, Vice Governor of the People’s Bank of China, wrote that future digital renminbi, supported and regulated by the central bank, will have the liability attributes of commercial banks, based on accounts, compatible with distributed ledger technology, issued and circulated within the financial system, with functions including a monetary value scale, value storage, and cross-border payments. Looking ahead, the technical and business model of digital renminbi will prioritize meeting real economic needs, adopting an inclusive and cautious approach to the development of account-based and value-based digital currencies, promoting digital renminbi to serve different scenarios and entities. Under the “two-tier” framework, the “Action Plan” clarifies that banks will pay interest on real-name digital renminbi wallet balances, adhering to self-regulation of deposit interest rates. This arrangement is based on the principle that substance over form, initially forming a compatible incentive scheme. Previously, the central bank announced plans to issue an “Action Plan to Further Strengthen Digital Renminbi Management Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction.”

The central bank will issue the “Action Plan to Further Strengthen Digital Renminbi Management Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction”

According to China Financial Times, Lu Lei, Vice Governor of the People’s Bank of China, stated that the People’s Bank of China will launch the “Action Plan to Further Strengthen Digital Renminbi Management Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction,” with the new digital renminbi measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecological system officially starting on January 1, 2026.

Views

Opinion: Although gold and silver prices may face profit-taking pressure in the short term, long-term macro factors will continue to support precious metal prices rising

The Kobeissi Letter, a capital market commentary, pointed out that in 2025, gold and silver prices surged, becoming a “new stimulus check.” Gold rose from $2,400/oz in 2024 to $4,500/oz now, an 88% increase; silver went from $29/oz to $79/oz, up over 170%. It is estimated that about 11% of Americans hold gold, and about 12% hold silver. U.S. households’ net assets increased by approximately $244.5 billion this year due to rising gold and silver prices. Globally, China and India bought 700–900 tons of gold annually between 2022-2024, doubling gold prices. Additionally, China plans to implement silver export restrictions starting January 1, 2026, further tightening market supply. Analysts believe that although short-term profit-taking and capital rotation into stocks and cryptocurrencies are possible, long-term inflation expectations, central bank rate cuts, and global central banks increasing gold holdings will continue to support precious metal prices.

Lu Lei: The “Action Plan” implemented from January 1, 2026, clarifies that digital renminbi wallet balances can earn interest

According to Financial Times, Lu Lei, Vice Governor of the People’s Bank of China, wrote that within the “two-tier” framework, the “Action Plan to Further Strengthen Digital Renminbi Management Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction” clarifies that banks will pay interest on real-name digital renminbi wallet balances, adhering to self-regulation of deposit interest rates. This arrangement is based on the principle that substance over form, initially forming a compatible incentive scheme. As a result, banks can independently manage assets and liabilities of digital renminbi wallets, with deposit insurance providing the same safety as deposits by law. For non-bank payment institutions, digital renminbi deposits are no different from non-bank payment customer reserves. Previously, the People’s Bank of China announced plans to issue the “Action Plan to Further Strengthen Digital Renminbi Management Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction,” with the new measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecological system to officially launch on January 1, 2026.

Project Updates

Flow: Validator consensus reached, network entering repair and testing phase

Flow issued an update regarding the attack, stating that validator consensus has been achieved, accepting the proposed software upgrade plan, and the network is now in repair and testing. Flow network is live and generating blocks, but due to the need to verify and test the remediation protocol, general transaction acceptance remains paused. At 6 a.m. Pacific Time, the network will open as part of the first phase of the Flow recovery plan, with Cadence environment operational, accounts affected by the poisoning attack still temporarily restricted, and EVM environment temporarily limited (read-only). Over 99.9% of Cadence accounts will restore full functionality during this transition.

Brevis launches airdrop registration and qualification review portal

On December 29, PANews reported that ZK smart verifiable computation platform Brevis announced that its airdrop registration and qualification review portal is now live. Users must verify eligibility before applying. The application window is open from December 29 to January 3 (UTC 6 a.m.), and distribution shares will be announced upon application opening. Previously, Brevis released the $BREV tokenomics: total supply of 1 billion tokens, with 32.20% community incentives.

Polkadot’s annual issuance will be first reduced in March 2026, with inflation rate dropping to 3.11%

According to PolkaWorld, with the passing of proposal WFC #1710 (Hard Pressure), Polkadot’s economic model now has a clear, predictable, and immutable long-term path. The core points are: a maximum total supply of 2.1 billion DOT; issuance decreases every 2 years; each reduction is 13.14% of the remaining issuance. Under the Hard Pressure model, from March 14, 2026, Polkadot’s annual issuance will officially decline, with the first reduction occurring on that date, corresponding to an inflation rate of approximately 3.11%.

Stable savings activity phase two opens for withdrawals on December 31

Hourglass announced that the second phase of the Stable savings activity will open for withdrawals on December 31, 2025. More details on the withdrawal process will be announced soon.

Analysis: At least 40% of Jupiter trading volume is pure atomic arbitrage activity

Analyst Eekeyguy posted on X that arbitrage trading on Solana is divided into atomic arbitrage and bundled arbitrage. Many arbitrage bots are not custom programs but use aggregators like Jupiter and DFlow. Among Jupiter’s trading volume, at least 40% is pure atomic arbitrage. The aggregator handles about 60% of all DEX trading volume on Solana, with Jupiter holding about 90% of that market share. Therefore, roughly 22% of Solana DEX total trading volume is atomic arbitrage via Jupiter. Additionally, with bundled arbitrage data included, Jupiter’s arbitrage activity accounts for 50%, making DEX arbitrage about 27% of total. Including DFlow and other aggregators, it is estimated that arbitrage tracked solely through aggregators accounts for about 30% of all Solana DEX trading volume. Conservative estimate: at least 50% of Solana DEX trading volume is arbitrage, sometimes approaching 60-70%. Note: The above analysis does not include other arbitrage strategies. Atomic arbitrage involves executing buy low and sell high within a single transaction on one DEX; bundled arbitrage involves multiple transactions within the same block.

Trust Wallet: Confirmed 2,596 wallets affected, new updates to be announced within a day

Trust Wallet CEO Eowync.eth posted on X regarding the security incident of browser extension v2.68, stating that the team has confirmed 2,596 wallets affected, with about 5,000 compensation claims received, including many duplicates or invalid submissions attempting to claim victim compensation. Accurate wallet attribution is the current focus; the team is cross-verifying data to distinguish genuine victims from malicious submitters. The verification process is ongoing alongside forensic investigations; some cases have clear conclusions, but the overall process continues. The team will prioritize accuracy over speed, aiming to quickly publish further updates once funds are safely returned to the correct users, expected within the next day.

Key Data

Data: ETH chips accumulated 17.9 million ETH in the $2,700–$3,100 range, accounting for 22.6% of total circulating supply

Crypto analyst Murphy said that ETH’s current key contradiction lies in the dispersion of its chip structure below. Currently, the most concentrated area of ETH chips is between $2,700 and $3,100, with a total of 17.9 million ETH accumulated, representing 22.6% of total circulating supply. The $2,700 level forms the highest density zone in the current chip structure, with a turnover of 4.43 million ETH, considered a key support level. On-chain data shows that in mid-September, large funds built positions near $4,500 but failed to reduce holdings afterward, leading to a price decline to the current range. Notably, in late November, large funds bottomed out in the $2,700–$2,800 range, with no obvious signs of reduction. On-chain behavior analysis indicates that chips near $3,100 mainly come from long-term funds, which are less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, but a sharp decline could trigger selling risk. Currently, ETH is oscillating between $2,700 and $3,100, with institutions forming some consensus in this range, providing some support. However, large chip accumulation remains below at $50–$396, which could pose risks to future price movements.

Today, 2 new wallets withdrew a total of 16,000 BTC from Binance, worth about $1.44 billion

According to Onchain Lens, another newly created wallet withdrew 1,000 BTC ($89.97 million) from Binance. In total, today, 2 new wallets withdrew a total of 1,600 BTC ($1.44 billion) from Binance.

Huang Licheng has fully closed his HYPE long position, realizing a profit of $2,988.83

According to hyperbot data, Huang Licheng closed his HYPE long position an hour ago, after holding it for 42 hours and 21 minutes, with a profit of $2,988.83. During this period, he added and reduced ETH longs multiple times; his current ETH long position is 8,000 ETH, with an unrealized profit of $245,000.

Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow of $782 million last week, BlackRock IBIT led with a net outflow of $435 million

According to SoSoValue data, last week (December 22–26, US Eastern Time), Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a total net outflow of $782 million, with none showing net inflow among twelve ETFs. The largest weekly outflow was from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, with $435 million, bringing its total net inflow to $62.06 billion. The second was Fidelity’s FBTC ETF, with a weekly outflow of $111 million, with a total net inflow of $12.098 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $113.53 billion, with an ETF asset ratio (market cap relative to total Bitcoin market cap) of 6.49%, and total net inflow reaching $56.62 billion.

Ethereum spot ETF net outflow of $102 million last week, BlackRock’s ETHA led with a net outflow of $69.42 million

According to SoSoValue, last week (December 22–26, US Eastern Time), Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $102 million. The ETF with the largest weekly inflow was Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF ETH, with $34.22 million, with a total net inflow of $1.51 billion. The ETF with the largest weekly outflow was BlackRock’s ETHA, with $69.42 million, with a total net inflow of $12.60 billion. The second was Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF ETHE, with a weekly outflow of $47.54 million, with a total net outflow of $5.10 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs was $17.73 billion, with an ETF asset ratio of 5.01%, and total net inflow of $12.34 billion.

Solana DEX spot trading volume has exceeded $1.7 trillion this year, surpassing Bybit to rank second

According to Artemis data, Solana DEX spot trading volume this year has surged past $1.7 trillion, surpassing Bybit to rank second, only behind Binance.

( Funding / Acquisitions

Cryptocurrency rewards platform SocialGood Inc. completes approximately $5.63 million Series B funding

Headquartered in Tokyo, the crypto rewards platform SocialGood Inc. announced the completion of an ¥880 million (about $5.63 million) Series B funding, bringing its total funding to ¥2.4 billion ($15.35 million). The round was raised through third-party directed investments (e-nest capital Co., Ltd., etc.) and loans, totaling ¥880 million. The company plans to use the new funds to further strengthen internal management and governance structures.

( Institutional Holdings

Suspected Trend Research again purchased 11,520 ETH worth $34.93 million

According to Lookonchain, “66kETHBorrow” (suspected to belong to Trend Research) recently bought another 11,520 ETH ($34.93 million).

Trend Research withdrew 20,850 ETH from Binance in the past hour, pledged and borrowed 40 million USDT

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, Trend Research, an institution under Yi Lihua, withdrew 20,850 ETH ($63.28 million) from Binance in the past hour, then pledged ETH at address 0x8FD…97f43 and borrowed 40 million USDT, possibly adding more positions. Currently, five addresses of this institution hold a total of 600,850 ETH, worth $1.82 billion; based on Yi Lihua’s data, the previous 580,000 ETH cost about $3,150, so after this addition, the average cost is approximately $3,146.