XRP at a Critical Moment: Diverging Signals from On-Chain Data and Technical Indicators

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: XRP at a Critical Juncture as On-Chain Data and Charts Tell Different Stories Original Link: XRP has fallen 11.4% so far in December, and the asset is expected to end the year with a loss, ending its consecutive two-year annual growth record. This decline reflects weakening market momentum, as on-chain data shows increasing selling pressure with inflows to a major exchange.

Despite the bearish background, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. They argue that XRP may be preparing for a rebound similar to its 2017 cycle.

Increased inflows to a major exchange indicate growing selling pressure for XRP

XRP has been struggling this quarter along with the broader market, experiencing consecutive monthly losses. Data from CryptoRank shows that the token fell 11.9% in October, followed by a sharper 13.8% drop in November.

Weakness continued into December, with XRP down 11.4% so far this month. During this decline, analyst Darkfost highlighted signs of increasing selling pressure.

On-chain data shows that starting December 15, inflows of XRP to a major exchange surged sharply, with daily deposits fluctuating between 35 million XRP and 116 million XRP (peaking on December 19). Prior to this spike, there was a relatively stable period of moderate inflows.

“These inflows are often interpreted as potential selling intent, especially when they increase rapidly,” Darkfost said.

According to the analyst, this shift also signals a change in investor behavior.

“While a large part of the market has been following a holding strategy since October, the trend over the past two weeks points to profit-taking on old positions, as well as capitulation and stop-loss selling from recent entrants.”

Recent analysis by BeInCrypto also found that the number of wallets holding XRP for 2 to 3 years dropped significantly from 14.26% of supply on November 26 to about 5.66% on December 26.

Finally, Darkfost added that as long as exchange inflows remain high or continue to increase, XRP may face challenges entering a true accumulation phase. The analyst warned that sustained selling pressure could prolong the current correction or even push prices lower.

Will XRP reenact a 2017-style rebound?

Nevertheless, several market observers remain optimistic about the coin’s prospects. One analyst pointed out that a potential Adam and Eve pattern may be forming on XRP’s 1-hour chart.

The Adam and Eve pattern is a technical reversal pattern indicating a possible shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. It consists of two distinct lows: the first, called the “Adam” bottom, is a sharp V-shape reflecting panic-driven selling.

The second, “Eve” bottom is more rounded, indicating stabilized price action and weakening selling pressure. A confirmed breakout above the neckline of the pattern is typically seen as a bullish signal, suggesting buyers are regaining control.

Additionally, some analysts argue that XRP’s current market structure is very similar to its price performance in 2017.

“XRP’s target levels suggest $15+. After the 2017 breakout, it fully followed its target levels, and recent similar breakouts seem to be following the same trajectory. This hints at another nearly 8x increase, over 690% gain,” Javon Marks wrote.

It’s worth noting, however, that these comparisons largely rely on historical symmetry and may not repeat under different market conditions.

As 2025 approaches, XRP remains at a crossroads. Increasing exchange inflows indicate selling pressure, while technical indicators and historical comparisons suggest a potential rebound. Whether the bullish signals can outweigh the weakened on-chain fundamentals may become clearer in the coming weeks.