# Cryptocurrency Market Forecast

Finding Structural Opportunities in Consensus Pessimism: My Current Strategy and Thoughts

The current market sentiment is clearly bearish, and this highly consensus pessimism itself is a noteworthy signal. Historical experience tells us that when market sentiment reaches extremes, it often marks the beginning of a subtle trend change. However, considering the cycle position, macro environment, and technical structure, I believe now is not the time for a full-scale bottom-fishing, but we have entered a phase of phased deployment and patient accumulation.

1. My Judgment on the Current Market Position

From a cyclical perspective, if November this year marks the start of this new cycle, then we are likely still in the early bottoming and consolidation stage. This phase is characterized by high volatility, fluctuating sentiment, and complex bottom structures. Excessive pessimism can lead to missed opportunities on the left side of the chart, but blindly being overly optimistic and heavily buying the dip may also result in prolonged consolidation.

Therefore, my core judgments are:

· A full reversal has not yet arrived: macro factors (interest rate cut expectations adjustment, liquidity tightening residual effects), and capital flows (ETF inflow rhythm) still need time for confirmation.
· Structural opportunities are emerging: some high-quality assets have entered long-term value zones, especially those with solid fundamentals, active ecosystems, and better resilience during this correction.

2. My Recent Trading Strategy

In the current environment, I adopt a combined strategy of “core position dollar-cost averaging + tactical grid trading”:

1. Core Position (60% allocation):
· Select BTC, ETH, and 2-3 leading tokens in the ecosystem, using weekly or monthly DCA to buy in batches.
· Not aiming to buy at the lowest point, but ensuring continuous accumulation near the bottom area.
· This portion is focused on a 1-2 year cycle upward, with no consideration of selling during short-term volatility.
2. Tactical Funds (30% allocation):
· Set up grid trading to automatically buy low and sell high within preset oscillation ranges.
· Adjust the range dynamically based on key support/resistance levels; currently focusing on accumulating during dips.
· The goal is to lower the cost basis and boost confidence during sideways markets.
3. Cash Reserves (10%):
· Keep some powder dry to respond to extreme drops or breakout opportunities.
· Usage of this portion requires clear signals (e.g., strong bottom pattern on daily chart + volume increase).

3. Key Signals I Focus On

· Sentiment indicators: Fear and Greed Index below 25 persistently, social media discussion heat cooling down.
· On-chain data: Changes in the number of long-term holder addresses, exchange net outflows.
· Macro factors: Trends in US Treasury yields, subtle changes in Federal Reserve statements.
· Technical structure: Whether BTC can establish effective support in the 40000-38000 range and form a daily bottom pattern.

4. Advice for Friends Who Are Also Observing

1. If your position is light: you can start small-scale DCA or buy in batches, but it’s recommended to add positions after each decline of a certain percentage (e.g., 5%) to widen the price gap.
2. If you are heavily trapped: at this point, cutting losses is not cost-effective; instead, consider adding quality assets at lower levels to reduce average cost, or shift some funds into grid trading to reduce holding anxiety.
3. Most importantly, stay patient: cycle transitions take time, don’t let short-term volatility disrupt your long-term plan. During the transition from bear to bull, time is more important than timing.

Markets always sprout in despair and grow amid hesitation. The current position may not be the lowest point, but it already holds value for medium- and long-term deployment. Instead of guessing when the bottom will arrive, it’s better to respond to uncertainty with strategy, stay rational when others are fearful, and quietly sow seeds for the next spring.

Which assets do you think have the best risk-reward ratio at this position? Welcome to discuss together!