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In the next 5 years, the true "profit engine" of #美股 has emerged
Many people discuss US stocks, focusing on stock prices, sentiment, and narratives.
But what truly determines long-term returns is never these.
It is—the profit structure.
This chart provides an extremely rare and easily overlooked perspective:
The projected profit growth ranking of the 25 largest US companies by market value over the next 5 years.
Not current earnings, not valuation, but where the profit curve is headed.
The conclusion is more extreme than most people imagine.
1️⃣ Three companies, profit expectations show a "discontinuous lead"
The top three companies are not traditional "stable blue chips," but a combination of strong cycles and new technologies:
$AMD:+617%
$PLTR:+484%
$TSLA:+442%
This is no longer a matter of "faster growth,"
but a fundamental change in the profit function.
They share a highly consistent characteristic:
👉 are at the critical point of "heavy investment phase → scaled release phase."
2️⃣ Why are profit expectations at the 600% level?
This is not analysts collectively losing rationality, but a reflection of three ongoing realities in the model.
First, revenue growth is no longer linear
In AI, computing power, automation, once truly adopted by enterprises:
Marginal costs decrease rapidly
Profit elasticity far exceeds revenue elasticity
The result is:
Profit curves suddenly become steeper.
Second, fixed costs have already been absorbed in advance
In recent years, these companies have borne:
High-intensity R&D
Massive capital expenditures
Long-cycle infrastructure construction
When revenue expands, profits do not grow "slowly,"
but suddenly become apparent.
Third, demand is no longer a single product cycle
They face not just a single product,
but platform-level, system-level, long-term needs.
This means the time dimension for profit realization is longer, and the space is larger.
3️⃣ Second tier: tech giants, but the slope is beginning to slow
The companies following closely behind still have strong profit expectations, but have returned to a "rational and understandable range":
$AVGO
$ORCL
$NVDA
$MSFT
$AMZN
$META
They are more like:
👉 Have already proven their business model
👉 Are continuing to scale up
Growth still comes from AI, but the profit slope is no longer as steep as the first tier.
4️⃣ Looking further down: the reality boundaries of traditional industries
The lower the ranking, the harsher the reality:
$AAPL
$PG
$BAC
$JPM
This is not about company quality.
But—business models determine profit ceilings.
Their characteristics are:
Stable
Strong cash flow
Cycle-resistant
But they do not have conditions for exponential profit revaluation.
This is also why, in the same bull market,
different stocks give a completely different "feel."
5️⃣ What this chart truly aims to tell you is not "which stock to buy,"
but a more fundamental question:
In the next 5 years, which companies are in the stage of "qualitative change in profit structure"?
Market attitudes towards such companies are often highly consistent:
More tolerance for errors
Higher valuation elasticity
Longer trend lifecycle
And these opportunities are never captured by short-term news.
If you can only choose one perspective to understand the next 5 years of US stocks,
this **"profit growth expectation ranking"**,
is more honest than stock price movements.
So the question is:
Who will be the next company to enter the "400% profit expectation club"?
If you care about—
Where profits come from, rather than how stock prices jump,
then what we are focusing on is exactly the same thing.