Trade Surplus Trillions, The Heartbreaking Truth Behind Breaking 7#汇率

Trade surplus is soaring, but you and I don't feel it.
The RMB is appreciating, but life feels tighter.
The problem isn't that the data is wrong,
It's that—this round of surplus has long decoupled from ordinary people.
1. How outrageous is the $1.07 trillion trade surplus?
In the first 11 months of 2025, China's trade surplus reached $1.07 trillion,
a year-on-year surge of 21%, an increase of $188.5 billion, hitting a record high.
What does this mean?
Pull out the top ten surplus countries globally—
China's surplus exceeds the combined total of the remaining 9 countries.
According to "textbook logic," the next steps should be:
- Large inflow of money into the domestic market
- Liquidity easing
- Improved employment, rising incomes
- Foreign exchange reserves skyrocketing
- Corporate balance sheet repair
But the reality is:
Unemployment insurance expenditures +22% YoY
"Graduating into unemployment" is becoming more common
CPI 0.7%, PPI -2.2%
Deflation pressure weighs on everyone
The issue isn't that money isn't being made,
It's that—money isn't returning home at all.
2. The first blow: Who are we really earning money from?
In the first 11 months of this year:
North America: Surplus of $262.7 billion, -20%
Asia: $445.5 billion, +39%
Europe: $285 billion, +28%
Africa: $89.2 billion, +70%
The US earned less,
But Asia, Europe, and Africa made it all back and more.
Especially:
Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar
Surplus growth rate +30%+
What is the essence?
👉 Re-exports + capacity spillover
The problem is:
This path is hard to sustain long-term.
The US, Mexico, and Canada are starting to block it.
India, Brazil, Turkey are adding tariffs.
Global anti-globalization will only strengthen.
This year looked good,
Next year may not.
3. The second blow: Is the surplus "export growth" or "import stagnation"?
In the first 11 months of 2025:
Exports: +5.2%
Imports: -1.0%
Half of the surplus expansion is due to:
👉 Domestic buyers can't afford, don't want to buy, lack demand.
In simple terms:
The more you sell, the more it shows you can't afford others' goods.
In international trade,
this has never been a good sign.
4. The third blow: Money is earned, but all enjoyed overseas
A little-known fact 👇
The real determinant of whether there's money domestically,
Is not the trade surplus,
But the balance of payments.
The conclusion is simple:
Earn more, leave less.
2014–2025
Cumulative surplus: $7 trillion
Foreign exchange reserves, instead, decreased by $500 billion
In the first three quarters of 2025:
Current account surplus: $489.8 billion
Capital and financial account deficit: $473.3 billion
👉 After a busy year, only $16.5 billion left.
Where did the money go?
1️⃣ Companies going abroad to build factories
Vietnam land, Brazil factories, Hungary production lines
2️⃣ Not settling foreign exchange
Investing overseas for high interest rates, trading US stocks, repaying foreign debt
3️⃣ Belt and Road RMB settlements
Money flows directly overseas, bypassing the central bank
The result is:
- Larger surplus
- Less liquidity domestically
- More stubborn deflation
The money earned is enjoyed by the whole world;
Deflation remains to be digested domestically.
5. The fourth blow: Surplus structure determines "employment indifference"
This year's surplus mainly from:
- Chips
- Automobiles
- High-end equipment
These industries share a common trait:
👉 Highly automated, requiring very few workers.
Industrial automation rate: 66.8%
Top companies' automation: 90%+
Manufacturing employment hasn't grown in 15 years
Conversely:
Clothing: -3.6%
Footwear: -8.0%
Furniture: -4.5%
Travel goods: -12.7%
👉 Factory workers' jobs are systematically disappearing.
Where did people go?
👉 All pushed into the service sector.
2000: 200 million people
2024: 360 million people
But the problem is—
The money industrials earn isn't distributed to them.
6. So: Why is the trillion-yuan surplus making ordinary people poorer?
A one-sentence summary:
This surplus is a "national-level structural adjustment," not a全民 dividend.
The exchange rate is prioritized for stability
High-end manufacturing is heavily subsidized
Low-profit, labor-intensive industries are abandoned
RMB appreciation isn't driven by market,
But by—national will.
Under the foreign exchange control system:
Exchange rate ≠ market price
Exchange rate = stabilizing tool
Housing prices can fall,
But the exchange rate must not spiral out of control.
7. Outlook for 2026: Will the RMB keep rising?
Most likely: No.
This year, the US dollar experienced a historically weak year
Next year, the dollar's depreciation space will narrow
Surplus growth is unlikely to be replicated
A more probable outcome is:
👉 Fluctuation in the 6.7 – 7.3 range
Not rising much, not falling much.
The final heartfelt message:
No matter how big the surplus,
If you're not on the "receiving end of the distribution,"
Your fate won't change much.
Every industrial upgrade,
Is essentially a wealth re-concentration.
The only thing ordinary people can do:
Don't just be laborers,
Find ways to become asset owners.
Whether it's:
- China's dividend
- US tech stocks
- Gold
- Bitcoin
- REITs
Be a "shareholder" in the产业链,
Not just a link being optimized.
This is the only way for ordinary people to find a way out in the era of trillion-yuan surpluses.