In the past ten days or so, the changes in the silver market have been somewhat unexpected.

Since the last analysis was published, a lot has happened—China announced that starting January 1st next year, silver exports will require a license, which is a significant signal. Meanwhile, the physical silver price in Shanghai once surged to $91, while the settlement price on the New York Mercantile Exchange was only $77, showing a clear price gap between the two locations. The London forward curve is still struggling with a spot premium, although not as extreme as in October, the price structure remains inverted. Additionally, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange temporarily increased the silver margin requirements, indicating that the market is indeed re-pricing volatility.

I spent the entire afternoon monitoring the market, analyzing various data and signals, trying to determine how these changes might influence the future trend. The conclusion is—it's not a good time to increase positions in the short term.

My plan is simple: wait and see if there's a pullback opportunity before taking action, while using options for flexible positioning. This is the real challenge in practical trading. Most trading books teach you how to cut losses and manage positions, but they never teach you what to do when your logic is validated successfully, or even overly successful. At that point, it's not just about capital management anymore; it's more about whether you can control your emotions.