The recent market trends are quite interesting. The precious metals sector remains hot, with gold breaking through the $4,500/oz level in December, and silver surging to a historic high of $79/oz. The year-to-date gains are over 70% for gold and 150% for silver, and this rapid increase is indeed alarming. However, on the morning of the 29th, there was a significant correction, resulting in a substantial pullback.

In contrast, the crypto market isn't as optimistic. BTC price hovers around 89,495 USDT, with the overall year showing minimal negative returns. More notably, the BTC-to-gold price ratio—originally maintained at a relatively balanced level—has now been halved to around 20 ounces/BTC.

What about the future market outlook? In the short term, the tight supply of gold and silver combined with expectations of re-inflation trading will likely continue to push precious metals higher. However, for the crypto market, the key factor remains the Federal Reserve's policy stance, which currently lacks clear signals. It is expected that by around Q1 2026, the BTC-to-gold ratio may gradually recover.

A reminder: if gold and silver continue to rise, BTC could face a downward pressure of 10%-15%, potentially dropping the price to around $80,000. It will be up to everyone to see how they respond during this period.